This study was prepared by the Directorate of Global Energy Economics of the International Energy Agency in co-operation with other directorates and offices of the Agency. It was designed and directed by Fatih Birol. Laura Cozzi co-ordinated overall demand modelling, energy efficiency, power and renewables analysis; Tim Gould co-ordinated overall supply modelling and analysis, and the focus on India; Amos Bromhead co-ordinated the analysis of fossil-fuel subsidies. Other colleagues in the Directorate of Global Energy Economics contributed to multiple aspects of the analysis and were instrumental in delivering the study: Ali Al-Saffar (lead on Chapter 1, contributed to India and oil); Marco Baroni (lead on the power sector, contributed to renewables); Christian Besson (oil, natural gas); Alessandro Blasi (natural gas, Southeast Asia); Stéphanie Bouckaert (lead on buildings, contributed to India); Ian Cronshaw (coal, natural gas); Dan Dorner (lead on energy access and on Chapter 2); Olivier Durand-Lasserve (macroeconomic modelling); Tarik El-Laboudy (renewables); Nathan Frisbee (India, oil); Timur Gül (lead on oil demand and transport); Sixten Holm (efficiency, renewables); Shigetoshi Ikeyama (Southeast Asia); Bartosz Jurga (natural gas); Fabian Kęsicki (lead on energy efficiency, contributed to India); Markus Klingbeil (natural gas, oil); Atsuhito Kurozumi (assumptions, policies); Junling Liu (China); Christophe McGlade (oil, natural gas); Ugbizi Banbeshie Ogar (oil, India); Paweł Olejarnik (oil, natural gas and coal supply modelling); Kristine Petrosyan (lead on oil refining, contributed to India); Nora Selmet (energy access, India); Toshiyuki Shirai (Southeast Asia); Daniele Sinopoli (power, renewables); Shigeru Suehiro (lead on industry, contributed to India, Southeast Asia); Timur Topalgoekceli (India, oil); Johannes Trüby (lead on coal, contributed to India); Charlotte Vailles (power, renewables); Molly A. Walton (India, power); Brent Wanner (lead on renewables, contributed to power); David Wilkinson (lead on data management, contributed to power and renewables); Georgios Zazias (fossil-fuel subsidies, emissions); Shuwei Zhang (transport, India). Teresa Coon and Sandra Mooney provided essential support. More details about the team can be found at www.worldenergyoutlook.org. Robert Priddle carried editorial responsibility.
© OECD/IEA, 2015
The study also benefited from input provided by numerous IEA experts. In particular, Manuel Baritaud, Fabian Barrera, Kamel Bennaceur, Philippe Benoit, Aad van Bohemen, Toril Bosoni, Tyler Bryant, Pierpaolo Cazzola, Emmanouil Christinakis, Brian Dean, John Dulac, Carlos Fernández Alvarez, Araceli Fernandez, Paolo Frankl, Rebecca Gaghen, Jean-Francois Gagné, Dagmar Graczyk, Mark Hashimoto, Costanza Jacazio, Kieran McNamara, Duncan Millard, Keisuke Sadamori, Paul Simons, Melanie Slade, Misako Takahashi, Sam Thomas, László Varró, and Martin Young. Experts from the OECD and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) also contributed to the report: Vincent Benezech, Jean Chateau, Isabelle Joumard, Henri Paillere, Jehan Sauvage and Ron Steenblik. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communication and Information Office for their help in producing the final report, particularly Astrid Dumond for production and to Bertrand Sadin and Anne Mayne for graphics. Debra Justus was the copy-editor. Acknowledgements
Janusz Cofala and Peter Rafaj (International Institute for Applied System Analysis), Francesco Fuso Nerini and Dimitris Mentis (Royal Institute of Technology, KTH-dESA), Trieu Mai (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, US), Seungwoo Kang (Mines ParisTech) and Uğur Öcal (Ocal Energy Consulting) provided valuable input to the analysis. The special focus on India benefited greatly from close co-operation with the government of India. We are particularly grateful to H.E. Arvind Panagariya, Vice Chairman of the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog), H.E. Piyush Goyal, Minister of State with Independent Charge for Power, Coal, New and Renewable Energy and H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of State with Independent Charge for Petroleum and Natural Gas, for their support throughout the study and for kindly providing keynote addresses at our workshop in New Delhi, and to many senior officials and experts, notably Anil Jain, Advisor at NITI Aayog, for their time and invaluable assistance in answering our queries and reviewing the draft report. Sincere thanks also to the many Indian and international research organisations that provided input, in particular The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). The work could not have been achieved without the support and co-operation provided by many government bodies, organisations and companies worldwide, notably: CEZ; Climate Works Foundation; Danish Energy Agency; European Union (Directorate General for Climate Action); Enel; General Electric; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan; JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic; Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation; Peabody Energy; Royal Dutch Shell; Polish Geological Institute; Schlumberger; Schneider Electric; Statoil; Toshiba Corporation; Foreign and Commonwealth Office - United Kingdom; and Westinghouse. A number of workshops and meetings were organised to get essential input to this study. The participants offered valuable new insights, feedback and data for this analysis. Energy and Climate Workshop, Paris, 5 March 2015. 3rd IEA Unconventional Gas Forum co-hosted by the IEA and the National Energy
Administration of China, with the support of the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, Chengdu, 10 April 2015. India Energy Outlook organised by the IEA in collaboration with NITI Aayog with the
support of TERI, New Delhi, 13 April 2015. Joint IEA-ERIN Roundtable on Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, Singapore, 20 April 2015.
Further details on these events are at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/aboutweo/workshops and www.iea.org/ugforum.
© OECD/IEA, 2015
IEA Energy Business Council Special thanks go to the companies that participated in the activities of the IEA Energy Business Council (EBC) during 2015 as these generated valuable inputs to this study. The EBC is the overarching body through which the IEA interacts with industry and brings together many of the world’s largest companies involved in all aspects of the energy industry. Further details may be found at www.iea.org/energybusinesscouncil. 6
World Energy Outlook 2015
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Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Prasoon Agarwal Sanjeev Ahluwalia Ali Aissaoui Marco Alberti Philip Andrews-Speed Paul Appleby Marco Arcelli Doug Arent Neil Atkinson Paul Baruya Georg Bäuml Chris Beaton Carmen Becerril Ariadne Benaissa Ritu Bharadwaj Kornelis Blok Rina Bohle Zeller Jean-Paul Bouttes Mark Brownstein Mick Buffier Nick Butler David Cachot Guy Caruso Vaibhav Chaturvedi Kieran Clarke Jonathan Cullen Gilles De Noblet Jonathan Demierre Giles Dickson Krishan Dhawan Carmine Difiglio Naoko Doi Gina Downes Francois Durvye Adeline Duterque Acknowledgements
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Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), India Observer Research Foundation, India Independent Energy Consultant Enel Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore BP Enel National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United States Informa IEA Clean Coal Centre Volkswagen International Institute for Sustainable Development Acciona Energia Department of Energy, United States Institute for Industrial Productivity Ecofys Vestas EDF Environmental Defense Fund, United States Glencore King’s College London, United Kingdom AngloAmerican Center for Strategic and International Studies Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), India International Institute for Sustainable Development University of Cambridge, United Kingdom Schlumberger Columbia University, United States ALSTOM Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation, India Department of Energy, United States The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Eskom Schlumberger Engie
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 7
Roger Emslie John Foran Michelle Foss Herman Franssen Peter Fraser Sha Fu Andrew Garnett Carlos Gascó Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee Dolf Gielen Andrii Gritsevskyi Wenke Han
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James Henderson Masazumi Hirono Didier Houssin Tom Howes Julie Ipe Takashi Irie Andrew Jeffries James T. Jensen Jan-Hein Jesse Balazs Jozsa Marianne Kah Michio Kawamata Ajay Khandelwal Radhika Khosla Shinichi Kihara Chul Hyun Kim David Knapp Hans Jørgen Koch Ken Koyama Vello Kuuskraa Benoit Lebot Steve Lennon Gang Liu Wenge Liu Xiaoli Liu Joan MacNaughton 8
Wood Mackenzie Natural Resources Canada University of Texas Energy Intelligence Group Ontario Energy Board, Canada Renmin University of China University of Queensland, Australia Iberdrola The World Bank International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) International Atomic Energy Agency Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, United Kingdom Asia Pacific Energy Research Center IFP Energies Nouvelles, France European Commission Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves J-Power Asian Development Bank Jensen Associates Clingendael Institute European Commission ConocoPhillips Mitsubishi Corporation Reliance Industries Centre for Policy Research (CPR), India Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) Energy Intelligence Group Nordic Energy Research, Nordic Council of Ministers Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Advanced Resources International International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation Shanduvan University of Southern Denmark China Coal Information Institute Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China World Energy Council World Energy Outlook 2015
Michael McNeil Michael Mellish Cristobal Miller Tatiana Mitrova
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Vijay Modi Simone Mori Steve Nadel Chris Namovicz Joachim Nick-Leptin Per Magnus Nysveen Simon-Erik Ollus Shin Oya Shonali Pachauri Stefan Pauliuk Brian Pearce Kate Penney Volkmar Pflug Christian Pichat Grzegorz Pieńkowski Gueorgui Pirinski Roberto Potí Haythem Rashed Anil Razdan Nicola Rega Henk Reimink Gustav Resch Brian Ricketts Hans-Holger Rogner Steve Sawyer Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer Sandro Schmidt Anupama Sen Baoguo Shan Lei Shi Adnan Shihab-Eldin Pierre Sigonney Robert Sinclair Jonathan Sinton Acknowledgements
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Energy Information Administration, United States Natural Resources Canada Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Columbia University, United States Enel American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Energy Information Administration, United States Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Germany Rystad Energy Fortum Corporation Japan Bank for International Cooperation International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Norwegian University of Science and Technology International Air Transport Association (IATA) Department of Industry and Science, Australia Siemens AREVA Polish Geological Institute Noble Resources International Edison Morgan Stanley Energy and Environment Foundation, India Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI) World Steel Association Vienna University of Technology, Austria EURACOAL International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Global Wind Energy Council Consultant and Advisor to the Executive Board of RWE German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) Oxford Institute for Energy Studies State Grid Energy Research Institute, China Tsinghua University, China Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences Total Natural Resources Canada The World Bank 9
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Deck Slone Benjamin Smith Christopher Snary Svend Søyland Jonathan Stern Ulrich Streibl Ulrik Stridbaek Dmitriy Sukhanov Cartan Sumner Xiansheng Sun Kuniharu Takemata Norman Tannert Wim Thomas Julien Touati Vipul Tuli Sergey Tverdokhleb Noé Van Hulst Patricia Vangheluwe Eirik Wærness Jay Wagner Graham Weale Peter Westerheide Jacob Williams Steve Winberg Ernst Worrell Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen
Arch Coal Nordic Energy Research, Nordic Council of Ministers UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Nordic Energy Research, Nordic Council of Ministers Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, United Kingdom OMV Dong Energy Rosatom Peabody Energy CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, China J-Power Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Germany Shell Meridiam McKinsey & Company Siberian Coal Energy Company (SUEK) Delegation of the Netherlands to the OECD PlasticsEurope Statoil Plexus Energy RWE BASF Peabody Energy Battelle Utrecht University, The Netherlands Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building, Denmark
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The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgments it contains. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.
World Energy Outlook 2015