Labour Market Outlook 2025 - Advanced Education, Skills and Labour

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2025

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK

Copyright © Department of Advanced Education and Skills ISBN: 978-1-55146-567-8 For additional copies of this document, please contact: Department of Advanced Education and Skills P.O. Box 8700 St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6 Canada Phone: 1-709-729-2480

MESSAGE FROM THE MINISTER As Minister of Advanced Education and Skills, I am pleased to present Labour Market Outlook 2025. As part of its mandate, the Department of Advanced Education and Skills works to ensure Newfoundland and Labrador has a highly skilled workforce to support the provincial economy, meet labour demands and increase labour force participation in the province. The availability of timely labour market information is pivotal to help individuals make informed decisions regarding their education and careers, to help post-secondary institutions tailor their programs to meet employer needs, and to assist industry in preparing for future labour market conditions. Labour Market Outlook 2025 projects the province’s labour demands for the next decade and outlines the prospects for various occupations. This report provides detailed outlooks on the provincial labour market landscape, including economic, employment, labour supply and occupational trends over the next 10 years. It is an important tool for job seekers, employers, educators, researchers and policy makers, as well as others with an interest in the provincial labour market. Workforce development is an integral part of Live Here, Work Here, Belong Here: A Population Growth Strategy for Newfoundland and Labrador, 2015-2025. Labour Market Outlook 2025 will help inform individuals and other stakeholders about the existing and forthcoming employment opportunities in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Provincial Government will invest in the workforce and the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, support familyfriendly communities, support economic and community development, and grow the population through immigration. I would like to recognize the significant contribution of the Economics and Statistics Branch of the Department of Finance in the development of Labour Market Outlook 2025. This document builds on previous work undertaken by the Department of Advanced Education and Skills. Increased public access to relevant, timely and accurate labour market information is key to supporting Newfoundlanders and Labradorians as they work, study and raise a family right here in our province. For more information on Labour Market Outlook 2025, please visit the Department of Advanced Education and Skills website at www.aes.gov.nl.ca.

The Honourable Clyde Jackman Minister of Advanced Education and Skills MHA, Burin-Placentia West www.gov.nl.ca

Disclaimer The information presented in this report is intended to help individuals gain a better understanding of the provincial job market. However, the information about future trends and job prospects is based on a specific set of economic and demographic assumptions. This forecast presents one possible scenario and may become dated, especially in the context of changing economic circumstances.

CONTENTS Highlights 1 Overview and Background 2 Key Considerations 2 Economic Overview 3 International and Canadian Economies 4 Economic and Demographic Outlook 5 Labour Supply Considerations 5 Employment Outlook 6 Occupational Job Outlook 8 Expansion/Contraction and Replacement Demand Forecast 14 Occupational Job Prospects 23 Appendix A: Methodology 30 Appendix B: NOC-S (For Occupations) and NAICS (For Industries) 32 Endnotes 41 Contact Information 44

FIGURES Figure 1. Labour Market – New Entrants and Attrition 6 Figure 2. Employment History and Forecast 6 Figure 3. Job Openings by Source 7 Figure 4. Job Openings by Skill Level, 2015 to 2025 7 Figure 5. Job Openings by Occupation, 2015 to 2025 8 Figure 6. Basic Concept of Occupational Model 30

TABLES Table 1. G7 Employment Rates 4 Table 2. Demographic Indicators 5 Table 3. Job Openings by Occupational Group (2015 to 2025) 8 Table 4. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Largest Increases in Employment (2015 to 2025) 9 Table 5. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Largest Decreases in Employment (2015 to 2025) 9 Table 6. Occupational Groups and Occupations that are the Largest Source of Attrition (2015 to 2025) 9 Table 7. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Largest Number of Job Openings (2015 to 2025) 10 Table 8. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Highest Job Prospects Rating (2015-2018) 11 Table 9. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Lowest Job Prospects Rating (2015-2018) 11 Table 10. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Highest Job Prospects Rating (2019-2025) 12 Table 11. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Lowest Job Prospects Rating (2019-2025) 12 Table 12. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Highest Job Prospects Rating (2015-2025) 13 Table 13. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Lowest Job Prospects Rating (2015-2025) 13 Table 14. Detailed Forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador 15 Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings 24

Purpose To provide relevant, timely, and accurate labour market information to stakeholders, including job seekers, employers, industry, post-secondary institutions, and government agencies. Such information is designed to inform people of employment opportunities in Newfoundland and Labrador, assist in career planning for residents and immigrants, help attract newcomers to existing and emerging opportunities, and respond to current and future labour market realities within the province.

HIGHLIGHTS Job Openings

Significant job openings are anticipated over the next decade due to an increasing number of retiring workers. Almost 64,000 job openings are anticipated between 2015 and 2025 in Newfoundland and Labrador.1 Almost 80 per cent of all job openings in this period will be among the following occupational categories: • Sales and service; • Business, finance and administration; • Management; • Health; and • Occupations unique to primary industry.2 Highlight: Almost 64,000 job openings are anticipated between 2015 and 2025.

Job Openings by Skill Level

Between 2015 and 2025, approximately 57 per cent of job openings will be in occupations that are in management or require some form of post-secondary education. There will also be considerable openings in jobs requiring secondary school and on-the-job training.

Employment

Over the next ten years, employment in the province is anticipated to fluctuate based on major project employment cycles. Between 2015 and 2018, employment will reflect the winding down of the development phases of large projects like Hebron and Muskrat Falls. However, it should also be noted that employment levels in 2015 are still anticipated to be high compared to the province’s historic employment levels. Over the 2019 to 2025 period, the number of workers is expected to increase by about 12,000 (or 4.5 per cent). This reflects higher activity levels around production from other major projects including Vale’s Voisey’s Bay underground mining development and Statoil’s Bay du Nord discovery, as well as expanding employment in the service sector to meet demands generated by an aging population.

• • • • •

Health care and social assistance; Mining and oil and gas extraction; Arts, entertainment and recreation/accommodations and food services; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; and Wholesale and retail trade.

Industries that are expected to experience the largest employment declines are: • Construction; • Professional, scientific and technical services; • Other manufacturing (i.e., excluding seafood processing);3 • Public administration; and • Educational services.

Supply Considerations

The population that supplies most of the labour (15 to 64 years old) is projected to decline significantly over the forecast period, implying tightening of labour market conditions. Of particular importance to future labour market policy is the fact that new entrants, specifically young people at the beginning of their careers, will be the biggest single source of new labour supply. It is anticipated, however, that their numbers will be exceeded by labour market exits due to attrition (i.e., retirements and deaths). Accordingly, immigration and attraction of people from elsewhere in Canada will be integral to maintaining and fostering a sufficient labour supply. The recently launched Live Here, Work Here, Belong Here: A Population Growth Strategy for Newfoundland and Labrador makes the attraction of individuals from the rest of Canada and around the world a priority. Highlight: Over the 2019 to 2025 period, the number of workers is expected to increase by about 12,000 (or 4.5 per cent).

During the last seven years in the forecast period (2015 to 2025), a general upward trend is anticipated. Industries that are expected to experience the largest increase in employment over the 2015 to 2025 period are:

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

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OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND

KEY CONSIDERATIONS

Labour Market Outlook 2025 provides an outlook for job prospects in 120 occupational groups in the province from 2015 to 2025. This work was produced by the Department of Advanced Education and Skills, in partnership with the Department of Finance. This report provides information on the number of job openings by occupational grouping as well as future job prospects for each grouping. The report is a valuable resource that can be used by: • job seekers; • employers and educators; • researchers and policy makers; and • others with an interest in the provincial labour market. The report also serves as a key resource to help achieve the objectives of the recently released Population Growth Strategy, particularly those key actions under the Workforce Development Action Plan of that Strategy. As part of the labour market information toolkit, Labour Market Outlook 2025 provides stakeholders (such as students, job seekers, employers, and educational institutions) with the information they need to plan for forecasted workforce opportunities. The occupational demand projections in this report and the associated job prospect ratings were prepared by the Economic Research and Analysis Division, Economics and Statistics Branch, Department of Finance. The projections are based on economic and demographic forecasts also prepared by the Department of Finance. The occupational demand projections are based on a macroeconomic forecast which includes key indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, household income, and employment. The macroeconomic forecast is used to project employment demand for over 40 industry groups. This employment by industry forecast is the basis for the occupational demand projections. A more detailed presentation of the methodology utilized for Labour Market Outlook 2025 and the development of the Newfoundland and Labrador occupational forecast is contained in Appendix A of this report.

This forecast notes continued tightening in the labour market in Newfoundland and Labrador as a result of a declining working age population. Replacement of retiring workers will be a priority over the forecast period and a main source of opportunities for job seekers in the Newfoundland and Labrador job market. Changes in the economy, technology and demographics will be the main driving forces shaping labour market conditions into the future. In order to ensure that the skills required to meet upcoming demands are met, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador continues to implement measures which help position the province and its workforce to capitalize on emerging opportunities. The Provincial Government has taken a number of proactive steps to prepare individuals choosing Newfoundland and Labrador as their workplace of choice for the opportunities that exist throughout the province. • To align labour supply and demand, and connect individuals with employment opportunities, the Provincial Government has established the Workforce Development Secretariat. Located within the Department of Advanced Education and Skills, the secretariat has a mandate to ensure labour market policies and investments reflect employer demands, to increase labour force participation rates, to collaborate with employers to recruit and train skilled workers, and to highlight skill needs and identify solutions to ensure skill gaps are filled. • In Budget 2015, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced it will work with College of the North Atlantic to renew the province’s approach to trades education by developing a new strategic vision and direction that is opportunity- and industry-driven. The objective of this strategic vision will be to train people for jobs that are about to open up and to match people and programs to labour force needs. This vision is outlined in Train Here: A Roadmap for Apprenticeship Renewal, part of the Workforce Development Action Plan of the Population Growth Strategy. • The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador obtained a 250 per cent increase from the Federal Government in the number of immigrants that the province can nominate annually. This includes an increase of 200 additional nominations for the Provincial Nominee Program, bringing the total to 500 nominations in this program, and an additional 550 nominations under the new Express Entry model of immigration. These increases will assist the province in meeting the forecasted need for skilled labour over the next 10 years. • Recognizing the importance of employer-driven training, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, in partnership with the Government of Canada, offers Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Job Grants for employers to train new or existing employees. These grants provide support to employers to invest in high quality training for their current staff and to help address the upskilling needs of a potential new employee.

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LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic Expansion and First Oil

Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy experienced substantial expansion following the start of oil production in 1997 from the Hibernia project. Between 1997 and 2013, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the province expanded by an average of 3.4 per cent per year. The exports sector was the main driver of growth, but all other sectors also grew, including government, investment and consumption. Exports almost doubled in size, reflecting production from Hibernia and, later, the Terra Nova and White Rose projects. Mineral output also grew significantly with the production of nickel from the Voisey’s Bay project and expansion in the iron ore industry. In recent years, capital investment has played an increasing role in the economy, mainly due to sizeable major projects in oil and gas, mining, hydroelectric development and manufacturing. Capital investment in the province rose from approximately $5 billion in 2009 to $12.3 billion in 2013. Developments in the natural resource sector also generated gains in the service sector. Professional services were positively impacted by major project development, while income growth supported gains in trade and other consumer services. The public sector (education, health and general public service) also experienced growth as increased government revenue led to enhanced delivery of public services. Labour market indicators reflected this prosperity. Employment grew by an average of 1.6 per cent per year from 1997 to 2013 with most of the gains in full-time jobs. Annual average employment reached 242,700 in 2013, the highest level ever recorded.4 During 2013, the annual average unemployment rate was 11.6 per cent, the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Strong employment demand was evident in wage gains over the period. Weekly earnings in the province in 2013 averaged $952, second highest only to Alberta among provinces, and 4.5 per cent higher than the national figure.5 Employment growth occurred in both the private and public sectors. Top private sector increases included construction; mining and oil and gas; professional and scientific (e.g., architectural, engineering and design, computer systems); trade; and business services (contact centres and many other support services). In the public sector, health care and social assistance recorded the greatest increase, followed by education and public administration.

This solid economic performance also had a significant impact on the population of the province. Beginning In 2008, after experiencing 15 years of annual decline following the ground fishery closure, the province’s population increased by 0.6 per cent per year, from 509,039 in 2007 to 528,194 in 2013.

Economic Performance in 2014

Global oil and iron ore price declines have impacted commodity producing economies around the world. Newfoundland and Labrador’s economic conditions also softened in 2014, following a period of substantial growth. Prices for Brent crude, a benchmark for Newfoundland and Labrador oil, and iron ore declined throughout 2014. For the year as a whole, oil prices fell nine per cent compared to 2013 and iron ore spot prices fell by about 30 per cent. Capital investment is estimated to have exceeded $12 billion in 2014. Lower spending on Vale’s nickel processing facility in Long Harbour was offset by higher spending on the Hebron and Muskrat Falls developments. Employment levels in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2014 declined compared to 2013, from 242,700 in 2013 to 238,600 in 2014. However, 2014 had the third highest annual employment level in the province since 1976 (the year this data commenced being compiled in this manner by Statistics Canada). Lower development activity at Vale’s nickel processing site in Long Harbour and the closure of Wabush Mines were contributing factors to the drop in employment. In 2014, Newfoundland and Labrador’s overall average weekly wages ranked second among the Provinces (Alberta being first) at $991. This represents the second highest growth since 2001 (Alberta having the highest growth), and the highest percentage growth among the provinces since 2009. In 2001, Newfoundland and Labrador’s overall average weekly wages were 90 per cent of the Canadian average. By 2014, this percentage had grown to 106 per cent in other words, six per cent higher than the national average. Statistics Canada data indicates that the population of the province was 526,977 (July 1, 2014), a decrease of 0.2 per cent compared to one year earlier. The population decline was due to natural population decrease (more deaths than births) and net out-migration.

Highlight: In recent years, capital investment played an increasing role in the economy, due mainly to sizeable major projects in oil and gas, mining, hydroelectric development and manufacturing. LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

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INTERNATIONAL AND CANADIAN ECONOMIES The export of resource-based products, particularly fish products, oil and minerals remains important to the Newfoundland and Labrador economy. Changes in the global markets for these commodities can significantly impact the economy of this province.

Global

Global economic growth has been modest in recent years. However, despite modest global growth, demand for some commodities (particularly oil and iron ore) was strong following the 2008-09 recession. This was due mainly to rapid growth in China. This demand resulted in high commodity prices over the past five years and created a boom in these industries worldwide. Slowing growth in China in 2014, together with supply increases, resulted in price declines. Commodity-producing regions around the world have been impacted by lower prices, including Canada. In late 2014 and through 2015, commodity prices have been volatile. Prices are currently at lower levels than in recent years. In the longer term, supply side adjustments due to the recent drop in prices, combined with improving global growth, are expected to result in a rebound in oil and iron ore prices. The International Monetary Fund is forecasting that global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will gradually increase over the medium term.6 A weak global economic recovery since the 2008-09 recession has been reflected in the labour market, through smaller wage gains, higher unemployment and lower employment rates for many G7 countries. Employment rates for the G7 countries are provided in the following table. This table shows that population growth outpaced job growth in a number of the countries, suggesting excess labour supply in some G7 countries in the medium term. However, this trend has not been evidenced in Newfoundland and Labrador. In the longer-term, labour force aging and renewed economic growth are expected to result in tightening labour market conditions in most of the G7 countries and in Newfoundland and Labrador.

4

Table 1. G7 Employment Rates G7 Employment Rates

Historical Peak

2014

Difference

United States

74.1 (2000)

68.1

-6.0

Italy

58.8 (2008)

55.7

-3.1

Canada

73.5 (2008)

72.3

-1.2

France

64.8 (2008)

63.8

-1.0

Germany

73.5 (2013)

73.8

0.3

United Kingdom

71.8 (2005)

71.9

0.1

Japan

71.7 (2013)

72.7

1.0

Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Notes: The employment rate used above is the employed 15 to 64 years of age as a percentage of the population in this age group.

Canada

In recent years (2012-2014), real GDP growth in Canada averaged just 2.2 per cent compared to 2.6 per cent from 2002 to 2007. The recovery has not been evenly shared amongst regions. Alberta and Saskatchewan posted above average GDP growth rates since the 2008-09 recession (4.6 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively), while remaining provinces posted growth rates at or below the national average.7 For 2014, Canada’s real GDP expanded 2.4 per cent, driven mainly by increases in exports and household consumption expenditures. Among provinces, Alberta posted the strongest economic growth at 4.4 per cent. The Canadian dollar has been steadily losing ground against the strengthening U.S. dollar for well over a year, partially due to falling oil and other commodity prices. The Canadian dollar recently (August 2015) reached its lowest level since March 2009, at just US$0.76. While there are negative impacts on some sectors of the economy from a lower exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, Canada remains a major commodity-exporting country, and the slide in the Canadian dollar is generally positive for future economic growth (especially since it coincides with a strengthening U.S. recovery). It is expected that the Canadian dollar will remain near US$0.76 for the remainder of calendar year 2015.8

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Looking forward, low oil prices coupled with Canada’s low exchange rate should help economic performance in manufacturing-intensive provinces and lead to a rebalancing of regional economic growth in 2015. The latest consensus of bank forecasts expects real GDP growth in Canada to average 1.5 per cent in 2015. British Columbia is expected to lead the provinces in real GDP growth at 2.5 per cent, followed by Ontario (2.3 per cent) and Manitoba (2.2 per cent). The same three provinces are expected to be among the frontrunners in employment growth as well, with Manitoba leading the way at 1.6 per cent, Quebec at 1.0 per cent and Ontario and British Columbia at 0.9 per cent each.

Table 2. Demographic Indicators Indicator

2014 (Actual)

2025 (Forecast)

Actual Change

Population

526,977

530,002

3,025

0.6%

Males

259,781

257,669

-2,112

-0.8%

Females

267,196

272,333

5,137

1.9%

44.6

47.9

3.3

7.4%

75,941

72,634

-3,307

-4.4%

357,580

324,196

-33,384

-9.3%

93,456

133,172

39,716

42.5%

Median Age Population 0-14

ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK

Population 15-64

Economic Outlook

Population 65+

Economic activity between 2015 and 2025 will vary from year-to-year depending on major project timelines, and the level of oil and mineral production. The current forecast indicates less activity for the first few years of the period as major projects begin to mature past peak development. Development of major projects has been a significant source of economic and employment growth over the past several years. As development winds down and large projects move toward the production phase, there is often a lull in activity. In the longer term, economic expansion is expected to resume due to production from Hebron, Muskrat Falls and the Voisey’s Bay underground mine, as well as development of other offshore resources, such as Statoil’s Bay du Nord discovery. Employment levels, in terms of the number of people working at some point during the year, are illustrated in Figure 2 on page 6.

Demographic Outlook

The provincial population may experience a decline during the first several years of the forecast period, in tandem with the winding down of several major projects. However, steps to mitigate population decline and support labour force attachment have recently been announced under the province’s Population Growth Strategy.9 Population levels are projected to increase marginally after 2018 from net in-migration required for major project labour demand and to replace retirements. On a net basis, by 2025, the total population level is expected to be 0.6 per cent higher than in 2014 as seen in Table 2. On a gender basis, the female population is expected to increase over the forecast period.

Per Cent Change

Source: Statistics Canada; Department of Finance

An aging population is one of the challenges facing the labour market over the forecast period as more people reach retirement age. The population aged 15 to 64 years, from which most of the labour force is drawn, is projected to decrease by 9.3 per cent (or 33,400), potentially impacting future labour supply. The population aged 65 years and over is expected to increase by 42.5 per cent. It is the assumed movement of this age group out of the labour market (attrition) which will provide most of the job openings going forward. The median age of the population is expected to continue to increase, rising from 44.6 years in 2014 to 47.9 years in 2025. Highlight: Attrition will result in a large number of job opportunities for new labour market entrants and other job seekers.

LABOUR SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS Changes in the province’s labour supply are based on several variables, including new entrants, attrition and migration. For the purposes of this analysis, new entrants are defined as young people at the beginning of their careers. The number of new entrants to the labour market has declined over the years, and this, together with attrition, is increasing pressure on labour supply as observed in Figure 1. About 25 years ago, there were 100 new entrants for every 50 people exiting the workforce. Today, it is estimated that for every 100 new entrants there are about 125 people exiting. This gap will continue to widen over the forecast period.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

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New entrants are projected to average about 5,000 per year, and total over 55,000 between 2015 and 2025. At the same time, the labour market is expected to lose almost 7,000 people per year, or about 76,000 people, through attrition over the 2015 to 2025 period. As a result, migration and other labour supply responses such as higher participation rates will be required to balance demand and supply. For some occupations, employers may be challenged to find required labour locally. However, steps have been outlined in the Population Growth Strategy’s recently released Workforce Development Action Plan, as well as the Immigration Action Plan, which will help align education and training in the province with labour market demands. This alignment will help further ensure a sufficient labour supply to meet employers’ needs.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK As seen in Figure 2, employment will remain at a relatively high level while labour market conditions are forecast to remain tight. Figure 2. Employment History and Forecast 350,000

Number of workers 256,910

292,060

279,980

300,000 250,000 200,000

Figure 1. Labour Market – New Entrants and Attrition

150,000

20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24

08

20

6,000

20

0

06

8,000

20

50,000

00

10,000

04

100,000

20

12,000

02

New Entrants Attrition High School Seniors

20

14,000

Source: Statistics Canada; Department of Finance

4,000 2,000 0

Highlight: Employment will remain relatively high for Newfoundland and Labrador over the next decade.

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Source: Department of Finance Notes: New Entrants refers to individuals entering the labour force for the first time. High School Students refers to students in Grade 12 or in their fourth year of high school.

The industries that are expected to experience the largest employment increases over the forecast period include: • • • • •

Health care and social assistance; Mining and oil and gas extraction; Arts, entertainment and recreation/accommodations and food services; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; and Wholesale and retail trade.

Increased employment in health care and social assistance is consistent with the aging population trend. Growth in mining and oil and gas extraction employment reflects major project production phases such as Hebron, Voisey’s Bay underground mine and Statoil’s Bay du Nord. Growth in the arts, entertainment and recreation/accommodations and food services industries reflects income growth over the period. 6

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

The forecast period from 2015 to 2025 can be divided into two distinct periods: from 2015 to 2018, and from 2019 to 2025. Over the next 10 years, employment in the province is anticipated to fluctuate based on major project employment cycles. Between 2015 and 2018, employment will reflect the winding down of the development phases of large projects such as Hebron and Muskrat Falls. This forecast estimates a decline in employment of 8.2 per cent (or 24,100 people) over this period. While this will result in fewer people being employed in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2015 than in 2014, it is important to note that employment levels in 2015 are still anticipated to be high compared to the province’s historic employment levels. Over the 2019 to 2025 period, the number of workers is expected to increase by approximately 12,000 (or 4.5 per cent). This increase primarily reflects production from other major projects, including Statoil’s Bay du Nord.

Job Openings

Significant job openings are anticipated over the next decade due to attrition. In total, almost 64,000 job openings are anticipated between 2015 and 2025. The majority of job openings are anticipated in the last seven years of the forecast. Between 2015 and 2018, 2,400 job openings are forecasted to occur. About 96.2 per cent of (or around 61,500) job openings are expected to occur during the last seven years of the forecast period (2019 to 2025). An expansion in employment and higher numbers of retirements significantly boost such job openings. Figure 3. Job Openings by Source Expansion/Contraction Demand

Deaths

Retirements

Openings

Skill Levels

The Government of Canada provides a National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S) matrix to allow occupational classification based on skill level. There are five skill level categories: • O – Management occupations; • A – Occupations usually require university education; • B – Occupations usually require college education or apprenticeship training; • C – Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation specific training; and • D – On-the-job training is usually provided for occupations. Each occupation or NOC code is assigned to a category based on its skill level. As indicated in Figure 4, about 57 per cent of the job openings over the entire 2015 to 2025 period will be in occupations that are in management or require some form of post-secondary education (groups O, A and B), similar to the current share of employment for these categories. There will also be considerable openings in jobs requiring secondary school and on-the-job training (groups C and D). This mix reflects aging workers exiting the labour market from all skill levels. The composition of job openings by skill level also differs depending on the period of the forecast. From 2015 to 2018, 43 per cent of job openings will be in occupations that are in management or require some form of post-secondary education. Over the 2019 to 2025 period, this percentage increases to 57.7 per cent, partially reflecting increased demand for skilled jobs because of the development of major projects in the province over this time period. Figure 4. Job Openings by Skill Level, 2015 to 2025 D On-the-job training is usually O Management provided for occupations

15,000

12.9%

12.0%

A Occupations usually require 15.0%

10,000

university education

30.0%

5,000

C Usually require

0

secondary school and/or occupation specific training

-5,000 -10,000

30.1%

B Occupations usually require college education or apprenticeship training

Source: Department of Finance

25 20

24 20

23 20

22 20

21 20

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

20 16

20 15

-15,000

Source: Department of Finance

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

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OCCUPATIONAL JOB OUTLOOK The Expansion/Contraction and Replacement Demand Forecast provides a summary of employment (in terms of the number of people working at some point during the year), expansion/contraction of employment, attrition and job openings for 120 three-digit occupational categories (please see Appendix B for a detailed description of occupational categories). These indicators are provided for the entire forecast period (2015 to 2025), but are also provided for the 2015 to 2018 and 2019 to 2025 periods due to the varying employment patterns forecast for the two periods. The 2015 to 2018 period is characterized by the winding down of major projects across the province. The 2019 to 2025 time period is characterized by the ramping up of economic activity across the province as new major projects come online. As a result, there will be increased employment demand for many occupations over this period. The job openings reported in the Expansion/Contraction and Replacement Demand Forecast section of this report are a net figure defined as the sum of the expansion/contraction of employment and attrition for each time period. This sum is illustrated for the 2015 to 2025 period and for the 10 major occupational groups in Table 3. Table 3. Job Openings by Occupational Group (2015 to 2025) Occupational Group Management Business, finance and administrative

8

Sales and service Business, finance and administrative Management Health Unique to primary industry Social science, education, government service and religion Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities Natural and applied sciences and related Trades, transport and equipment operators and related Art, culture, recreation and sport 0

6,438

Social science, education, government service and religion

4,980

Art, culture, recreation and sport

1,161 17,701

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related

1,612

Unique to primary industry

5,870

Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities

2,828

10,000 15,000

Tables 4, 5, 6 and 7 provide a summary of the largest increases and decreases in employment, attrition and job openings over the 2015 to 2025 period by occupational group.

12,879

Health

5,000

Source: Department of Finance

7,675 2,747

Total

Figure 5. Job Openings by Occupation, 2015 to 2025

Job Openings

Natural and applied sciences and related

Sales and service

A visual breakdown of total job openings (ranked most to least) by the 10 major occupational categories is provided below in Figure 5.

63,891

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Employment

Attrition

Table 4. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Largest Increases in Employment (2015 to 2025)

• • • • •

The National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S) is a statistical classification designed by Statistics Canada to classify data on occupations from the Census of Population and other Statistics Canada surveys.

Occupational Group

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Sales and service

• Childcare and home support workers • Retail salespersons and sales clerks • Cashiers

Health

• Nurse supervisors and registered nurses10 • Assisting occupations in support of health services (includes personal care assistants, dental assistants and other aides/assistants)11 • Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)12

Occupations unique to primary industry

• Underground miners, oil and gas drillers • Supervisors, mining, oil and gas • Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling

* See Appendix B for description

Table 5. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Largest Decreases in Employment (2015 to 2025) Occupational Group

Business, finance and administration

Sales and service; Business, finance and administration; Trades, transport and equipment operators and related; Management; and Social science, education, government services and religion.

Table 6. Occupational Groups and Occupations that are the Largest Source of Attrition (2015 to 2025) Occupational Group Management

• Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers • Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers13 • Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying and mapping14

Occupation (by NOC-S*) • Managers in retail trade • Legislators and senior management • Managers in health, education, social and community services

Trades, transport and • Motor vehicle and transit drivers equipment operators • Carpenters and cabinetmakers and related • Electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

Business, finance and administration

• Clerical occupations and general office skills • Administrative and regulatory occupations15 • Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists

Sales and service

• Cleaners • Childcare and home support workers • Retail salespersons and sales clerks

Social science, education, government services and religion

• Secondary, elementary school teachers and educational counsellors • University professors and assistants, college and vocational instructors • Paralegals, social services workers and occupations in education and religion16

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Trades, transport and • Trades helpers and labourers equipment operators • Carpenters and cabinetmakers and related • Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades Natural and applied sciences and related

Approximately 74 per cent of job openings due to attrition alone in this forecast period will be among (see Table 6):

* See Appendix B for description

• Clerical occupations and general office skills • Administrative and regulatory occupations • Auditors, accountants and investment professionals

* See Appendix B for description

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

9

Job Openings

Almost 80 per cent of all job openings in this forecast period will be among (see Table 7): • • • • •

Sales and service; Business, finance and administration; Management; Health; and Occupations unique to primary industry.

Table 7. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Largest Number of Job Openings (2015 to 2025) Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Occupational Group Management

• Managers in retail trade • Legislators and senior management • Managers in health, education, social and community services

Business, finance and administration

• Clerical occupations, general office skills • Administrative and regulatory occupations • Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists

Sales and service

• Cleaners • Childcare and home support workers • Retail salespersons and sales clerks

Health

• Nurse supervisors and registered nurses17 • Assisting occupations in support of health services18 • Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)19

Occupations unique to primary industry

• Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/women • Primary production labourers20 • Underground miners, oil and gas drillers

* See Appendix B for description

Occupational Ratings

Changing labour demands do not provide a complete picture of occupational job prospects for the future. Consideration must also be given to the size of the labour force relative to employment, as well as the overall level of employment in an occupation. For example, employment may grow by two per cent in a particular occupation, but at the same time, the labour force in that 10

occupation may grow by three per cent. These factors would potentially give rise to an excess supply of workers and increasing unemployment. Alternatively, an occupation may represent a small proportion of total employment and be growing at an above average rate. In this case, there may be relatively few new job openings, despite the fast rate of growth. The Department of Finance carried out an analysis of 120 occupational categories taking both supply and demand considerations into account to identify occupations with the strongest job prospects over the 2015 to 2025 period, as well as the 2015 to 2018 and 2019 to 2025 periods. This occupational forecast included the following variables: • • • • • • •

Employment growth rates (historical and projected); Attrition; New entrants; Participation rates; Age of the workforce; Unemployment; and Migration.

Considering both supply and demand, the occupations in this outlook have been assigned a job prospect rating between 1 and 4, according to a scale which takes into account various labour market indicators, including: • • • •

Employment growth; Ratio of attrition to labour force; Net migration as a percentage of labour force; and, Increased labour supply responses as a percentage of labour force (inmigration, higher participation rates, inter-occupational shifts).

Occupations are rated between 1 and 4, with 1 providing the lowest job prospects where existing labour supply is anticipated to meet demands, and 4 providing the highest job prospects where existing labour supply is tight, and not meeting proposed demands.21 The Occupational Job Prospects section of this report provides the complete table of the 120 occupations and their ratings. As seen in this section, job prospects for various occupations differ between 2015 to 2018 and 2019 to 2025, mainly due to the impacts of major project developments. The following section provides a summary of the highest and lowest rated occupational groups and occupations (as per NOC-S) over each time period. Occupations forecast to experience labour pressures have a rating of 3 or 4, while those anticipated to have little or no pressure are rated 1 or 2.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

2015 to 2018

2015 to 2018

Table 8. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Highest Job Prospects Rating (1 being lowest job prospects and 4 being highest)

Table 9. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Lowest Job Prospects Rating (1 being lowest job prospects and 4 being highest)

Occupational Group Management (3)

Occupations unique to primary industry (3)

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Occupational Group

• Legislators and senior management (3) • Managers in health, education, social and community services (3) • Managers in primary production (except agriculture) (3) • Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture (3) • Other occupations unique to primary industry22 (3) • Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/women (3)

Health (3)

• Nurse supervisors and registered nurses23 (3) • Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)24 (3) • Assisting occupations in support of health services25 (3)

Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (3)

• Central control, process operators in manufacturing processing (3) • Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing (3) • Machine operators and related workers in metal and mineral products processing (3)

Business, finance and administrative (3)

• Mail and message distribution occupations (including couriers) (3) • Human resources and business service professionals (3) • Finance and insurance administrative occupations (3)

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Trades, transport and • Trades helpers and labourers (1) equipment operators • Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades (1) and related (2) • Masonry and plastering trades (1) Natural and applied science and related (2)

• Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers (1) • Computer and information systems professionals (1) • Other natural, applied sciences, related occupations26 (2)

Sales and service (2)

• Cashiers (1) • Other sales and related occupations27 (2) • Retail sales persons and sales clerks (2)

Social science, education, government services and religion (2)

• Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries (2) • Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants (2) • University professors and assistants, college and vocational instructors (2)

* See Appendix B for description

In the occupations above, over this specific time period (2015 to 2018), projected labour supply is expected to be able to meet projected job openings.

* See Appendix B for description

In the occupations above, over this specific time period (2015 to 2018), the number of workers necessary to meet anticipated job openings will require new labour supply.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

11

2019 to 2025

Table 10. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Highest Job Prospects Rating (1 being lowest job prospects and 4 being highest) Occupational Group

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Management (3)

• Legislators and senior management (4) • Managers in retail trade (3) • Managers in financial and business services (3)

Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (3)

• Machine operators in chemical, plastic and rubber processing (3) • Other occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities28 (3) • Central control, process operators in manufacturing processing (3)

Business, finance and administration (3)

• Mail and message distribution occupations (including couriers) (4) • Finance and insurance administrative occupations (4) • Administrative and regulatory occupations (3)

Health (3)

• Nurse supervisors and registered nurses29 (3) • Physicians, dentists and veterinarians (3) • Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)30 (3)

2019 to 2025 Table 11. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Lowest Job Prospects Rating (1 being lowest job prospects and 4 being highest) Occupational Group

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Social science, education, government services and religion (2)

• Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants (2) • Secondary, elementary school teachers, educational counsellors (2) • University professors and assistants, college and vocational instructors (2)

Trades, transport and • Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades (1) equipment operators • Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters (1) and related (2) • Masonry and plastering trades (1) Sales and service (2)

• Other occupations in personal service (2) • Technical occupations in personal service (2) • Occupations in food and beverage (2)

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (2)

• Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations (1) • Creative designers and crafts persons (1) • Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts (2)

* See Appendix B for description

* See Appendix B for description

In the occupations above, over this specific time period (2019 to 2025), the number of workers necessary to meet anticipated job openings will require new labour supply.

In the occupations above, over the forecast period (2019 to 2025), projected labour supply is expected to be able to meet projected job openings.

12

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

2015 to 2025

2015 to 2025

Table 12. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Highest Job Prospects Rating (1 being lowest job prospects and 4 being highest)

Table 13. Occupational Groups and Occupations with the Lowest Job Prospects Rating (1 being lowest job prospects and 4 being highest)

Occupational Group

Occupational Group

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Management (3)

• Legislators and senior management (4) • Managers in retail trade (3) • Managers in health, education, social and community services (3)

Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (3)

• Central control, process operators in manufacturing processing (3) • Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing (3) • Machine operators and related workers in metal and mineral products processing (3)

Business, finance and administration (3)

Health (3)

• Mail and message distribution occupations (including couriers) (3) • Finance and insurance administrative occupations (3) • Administrative and regulatory occupations (3) • Nurse supervisors and registered nurses31 (3) • Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)32 (3) • Physicians, dentists and veterinarians (3)

Occupation (by NOC-S*)

Trades, transport and • Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades (1) equipment operators • Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters (1) and related (2) • Masonry and plastering trades (1) Social science, education, government service and religion (2)

• Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants (2) • Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries (2) • Secondary, elementary school teachers, educational counsellors (2)

Natural and applied science and related (2)

• Computer and information systems professionals (1) • Other natural, applied sciences, related occupations33 (2) • Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers (2)

Sales and service (2)

• Other occupations in personal service34 (2) • Cashiers (2) • Technical occupations in personal service35 (2)

* See Appendix B for description

* See Appendix B for description

In the occupations above, over the entire forecast period (2015-2025), projected labour supply is expected to be able to meet projected job openings.

In the occupations above, over the forecast period (2015-2025), the number of workers necessary to meet anticipated job openings will require new labour supply.

At a more detailed level, the 20 occupations which are rated the highest (3 or higher) over the 2015 to 2025 forecast period are: • • • • • • • • • • •

Central control, process operators in manufacturing processing; Childcare and home support workers; Cleaners; Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture; Finance and insurance administrative occupations; Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/women; Legislators and senior management; Mail and message distribution occupations; Managers in financial and business services; Managers in health, education, social and community services; Managers in retail trade;

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

13

• Nurse supervisors and registered nurses;36 • Other elemental service occupations (e.g., ushers, dry cleaning and laundry occupations, and other attendants); • Other occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport;37 • Other occupations unique to primary industry;38 • Other trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (e.g., motor transport supervisors, upholsterers and commercial drivers); • Physical science professionals;39 • Stationary engineers and power station and system operators; • Technical occupations in libraries, archives, museums and art galleries; and • Transportation officers and controllers.

EXPANSION/CONTRACTION AND REPLACEMENT DEMAND FORECAST This section contains detailed forecast tables for the 120 different occupations. The tables highlight forecasted employment levels for three different reference year periods (where employment reflects anyone employed at some point during the year). The remaining columns in the tables note the changes expected to occur for the 2015 to 2018 time period, the 2019 to 2025 time period, and the overall 2015 to 2025 time period. These changes are: • The expansion/contraction of employment levels from the reference years; • Overall attrition levels (i.e., retirements and attrition); and • The combined effect of each of these two types of employment changes, resulting in net job openings.

14

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL Occupation (NOC-S)

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

2,404

A

MANAGEMENT

22,138 20,374 21,598

1

A01 Legislators and senior management

1,838

1,724

2

A11 Administrative services managers

2,174

3

A12 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems

4

61,486 63,890

-1,764

1,224

-541

2,865

5,350

8,216

1,101

6,574

7,675

1,796

-114

72

-42

359

632

991

246

704

949

2,028

2,122

-146

94

-52

254

505

759

107

599

706

608

537

536

-72

-1

-73

56

103

159

-16

102

87

A13 Sales, marketing and advertising managers

993

887

913

-106

26

-80

125

227

352

19

253

272

5

A14 Facility operation and maintenance managers

786

726

756

-60

30

-30

90

179

269

30

210

240

6

A21 Managers in retail trade

5,528

5,160

5,771

-369

611

242

729

1,391

2,120

360

2,003

2,363

7

A22 Managers in food service and accommodation

1,920

1,923

2,065

3

141

144

208

412

620

211

553

764

8

A30 Managers in financial and business services

1,221

1,176

1,331

-45

155

109

149

296

445

104

451

555

9

A32 Managers in health, education, social and community services

1,756

1,695

1,756

-61

60

0

285

485

770

224

546

770

10

A37 Managers in construction and transportation

2,382

1,729

1,676

-654

-53

-707

243

408

651

-410

355

-55

11

A38 Managers in primary production (except agriculture)

327

336

362

10

26

36

33

75

108

43

101

144

12

A39 Managers in manufacturing and utilities

605

542

550

-63

8

-55

69

137

206

6

145

151

13

Axx Other Management occupations (A31, A33, A34, A35, A36)

1,998

1,909

1,964

-89

55

-34

265

499

764

176

554

730

B

BUSINESS, FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATIVE

44,278 41,080 43,235

-3,197

2,155

-1,042

4,845

9,076

13,921

1,647

14

B01 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals

3,420

3,111

3,282

-309

171

-138

351

632

983

42

803

845

15

B02 Human resources and business service professionals

1,696

1,588

1,654

-107

65

-42

200

321

521

93

387

479

11,231 12,879

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

15

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S) TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

2,404

61,486 63,890

16

B11 Finance and insurance administrative occupations

2,516

2,295

2,440

-221

145

-76

326

590

916

105

735

840

17

B21 Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists

3,503

3,265

3,403

-238

138

-100

678

1,272

1,949

439

1,410

1,849

18

B31 Administrative and regulatory occupations

7,327

6,764

7,107

-564

343

-220

845

1,512

2,357

282

1,856

2,137

19

B41 Clerical supervisors

1,351

1,243

1,304

-109

61

-47

119

247

366

10

308

318

20

B51 Clerical occupations, general office skills

9,749

9,076

9,481

-673

405

-268

980

1,821

2,801

307

2,226

2,533

21

B52 Office equipment operators

639

595

613

-44

18

-27

66

135

201

21

153

174

22

B53 Finance and insurance clerks

4,229

3,916

4,128

-313

212

-101

406

805

1,211

93

1,017

1,110

23

B54 Administrative support clerks

571

540

561

-31

22

-10

55

106

161

24

127

151

24

B55 Library, correspondence and related information clerks

4,852

4,546

4,828

-306

283

-23

391

764

1,155

85

1,047

1,131

25

B56 Mail and message distribution occupations

1,455

1,367

1,454

-88

86

-2

194

352

547

107

438

545

26

B57 Recording, scheduling and distributing occupations

2,969

2,775

2,981

-195

206

12

235

520

754

40

726

766

C

NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES AND RELATED

20,252 17,850 18,045

-2,402

195

-2,208

1,747

3,207

4,954

-655

3,402

2,747

27

C01 Physical science professionals

435

425

455

-10

29

19

49

97

146

39

127

166

28

C03 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers

2,585

2,069

1,978

-516

-91

-607

177

319

496

-339

229

-111

29

C04 Other engineers

1,153

1,065

1,115

-88

50

-38

83

163

246

-4

212

208

30

C07 Computer and information systems professionals

2,266

2,086

2,153

-180

67

-113

118

249

367

-62

316

254

31

C11 Technical occupations in physical sciences

1,012

995

1,072

-17

77

60

90

173

263

73

250

323

32

C12 Technical occupations in life sciences

1,827

1,729

1,761

-98

33

-65

182

338

520

84

371

455

33

C13 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical, industrial engineering

1,094

868

838

-226

-29

-255

95

154

249

-131

125

-6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

16

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S) TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

34

C14 Technical occupations in 2,103 electronics and electrical engineering

35

C15 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, mapping

36

2,404

61,486 63,890

1,904

1,972

-199

68

-131

215

430

645

16

498

514

1,050

758

675

-293

-82

-375

86

139

225

-207

56

-150

C16 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers

1,798

1,452

1,409

-345

-43

-389

188

290

479

-157

247

90

37

C17 Transportation officers and controllers

2,262

2,149

2,257

-113

108

-5

260

483

743

147

591

738

38

C18 Technical occupations in computer and information systems

1,506

1,407

1,465

-99

58

-41

105

211

316

6

269

275

39

Cxx Other Natural, applied sciences, related occupations (C02, C05, C06)

1,161

943

893

-218

-49

-267

98

161

259

-119

111

-8

D

HEALTH

-259

1,462

1,202

1,866

3,370

5,236

1,606

4,832

6,438

40

D01 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians

41

19,650 19,391 20,852 1,504

1,478

1,579

-26

101

76

121

217

338

95

318

414

D03 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists

828

790

869

-38

79

41

64

119

183

27

198

224

42

D04 Therapy and assessment professionals

771

766

822

-6

56

50

49

89

137

43

145

188

43

D11 Nurse supervisors and registered nurses

6,364

6,300

6,735

-64

435

371

736

1,263

1,999

673

1,697

2,370

44

D21 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

1,750

1,719

1,833

-31

114

83

143

267

410

112

381

493

45

D23 Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)

3,760

3,722

4,005

-39

283

244

339

623

962

300

906

1,206

4,235

4,178

4,534

-57

355

298

379

725

1,104

322

1,080

1,403

438

438

477

0

39

39

34

67

102

34

107

141

46 47

D31 Assisting occupations in support of health services Dxx Other health occupations (D02, D22)

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

17

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S) TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS E 48 49

SOCIAL SCIENCE, EDUCATION, GOVERNMENT SERVICE AND RELIGION E01 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries E02 Psychologists, social workers, counsellors, clergy, probation officers

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970 23,285 22,044 22,541

2,404

61,486 63,890

-1,241

497

-743

2,050

3,673

5,723

809

4,171

4,980

976

865

892

-111

28

-83

82

153

235

-29

181

152

3,170

3,088

3,275

-82

187

105

343

594

937

261

781

1,041

2,914

2,725

2,785

-189

60

-129

215

397

611

26

456

482

E03 Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants E11 and E12 University professors and assistants, College and Vocational Instructors E13 Secondary, elementary school teachers, educational counsellors E21 Paralegals, social services workers, occupations in education, religion ART, CULTURE, RECREATION AND SPORT

4,616

4,249

4,251

-367

1

-365

432

729

1,162

66

731

797

7,030

6,695

6,648

-335

-47

-382

602

1,104

1,706

267

1,057

1,324

4,578

4,422

4,690

-157

269

112

376

696

1,072

219

965

1,184

5,861

5,606

5,860

-255

253

-2

409

755

1,163

154

1,008

1,161

54

F02 Writing, translating and public relations professionals

858

808

844

-49

36

-13

81

141

223

32

177

209

55

F03 Creative and performing artists

906

875

908

-31

33

1

98

173

271

67

206

273

56

F11 Technical occupations in libraries, archives, museums and art galleries

521

512

541

-9

29

20

63

110

173

54

139

193

57

F12 Photography, graphics, technical occupations movies, broadcasting and performing arts

525

482

506

-43

23

-19

27

60

87

-16

83

67

58

F14 Creative designers and craftspersons

707

639

662

-69

24

-45

41

79

120

-28

103

75

1,929

1,893

1,981

-36

88

52

51

102

154

15

191

205

414

397

417

-17

21

3

47

89

136

30

109

139

50 51 52 53 F

59 60

F15 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations Fxx Other Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (F01, F13)

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

18

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S)

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

2,404

61,486 63,890

G

SALES AND SERVICE

69,551 66,763 72,132

15,320 17,701

61

G01 Sales and service supervisors

62

2,370

-2,788

5,369

2,581

5,169

9,951

15,120

2,381

2,274

2,484

-96

210

114

165

352

516

69

562

631

G11 Sales representatives, wholesale 1,108 trade

981

1,023

-127

43

-85

91

180

272

-36

223

187

63

G12 Technical sales specialists, wholesale trade

511

458

479

-53

22

-32

45

88

134

-8

110

102

64

G13 Insurance and real estate sales occupations and buyers

1,381

1,328

1,534

-54

206

152

124

250

374

71

456

526

65

G21 Retail salespersons and sales clerks

9,586

8,960

10,010

-626

1,050

423

623

1,211

1,834

-4

2,261

2,257

66

G31 Cashiers

7,266

6,888

7,628

-378

740

362

313

625

938

-65

1,366

1,300

67

G41 Chefs and cooks

4,622

4,567

4,871

-55

304

249

314

608

922

259

911

1,171

68

G51 Occupations in food and beverage service

3,799

3,809

4,079

10

269

279

132

282

415

142

552

694

69

G61 Police officers and fire-fighters

1,400

1,329

1,334

-72

6

-66

137

260

397

66

265

331

70

G62 Other occupations in protective service

1,264

1,195

1,188

-69

-8

-76

90

174

264

21

167

188

71

G63 Security guards and related occupations

2,768

2,587

2,755

-181

167

-13

251

435

686

70

602

672

72

G71 Occupations in travel and accommodation

1,292

1,249

1,337

-43

88

45

92

195

287

49

283

332

73

G72 Tour and recreational guides and casino occupations

560

553

584

-7

31

23

39

79

118

31

110

141

74

G73 Other occupations in travel, accommodation, amusement and recreation

691

688

730

-3

42

39

45

81

126

42

124

166

75

G81 Childcare and home support workers

8,406

8,244

8,829

-162

585

423

932

1,673

2,605

770

2,258

3,028

76

G91 Technical occupations in personal service

1,462

1,382

1,441

-80

58

-21

98

179

276

18

237

255

77

G92 Other occupations in personal service

569

538

568

-31

30

-1

31

61

92

0

91

91

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

19

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S) TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS 78

G93 Cleaners

79

G94 Butchers and bakers, retail and wholesale

80

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

2,404

61,486 63,890

9,762

9,362

9,990

-400

628

228

1,044

2,016

3,060

644

2,644

3,288

980

915

998

-65

83

18

68

137

204

3

219

222

G96 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations

5,041

5,036

5,394

-5

358

353

195

407

601

190

765

954

81

G97 Other sales and related occupations

3,845

3,584

3,987

-261

403

143

232

465

697

-29

869

839

82

G98 Other elemental service occupations

866

836

890

-30

55

24

109

193

302

79

248

326

H

TRADES, TRANSPORT AND EQUIPMENT OPERATORS AND RELATED

212

-11,276

4,537

8,351

12,888

-6,951

8,563

1,612

83

H01 Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers

2,731

2,084

2,062

-647

-22

-669

264

472

736

-383

450

67

84

H11 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters

1,587

1,133

1,065

-455

-68

-522

81

135

217

-373

68

-306

85

H12 Carpenters and cabinetmakers

5,446

4,018

3,963

-1,429

-54

-1,483

399

683

1,081

-1,030

628

-402

86

H13 Masonry and plastering trades

1,333

893

816

-441

-76

-517

75

126

201

-365

50

-316

87

H14 Other construction trades

2,557

1,725

1,576

-831

-149

-980

151

262

413

-680

113

-567

88

H21 Electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

4,753

3,603

3,452

-1,150

-151

-1,301

427

634

1,061

-723

483

-240

89

H22 Stationary engineers and power station and system operators

1,051

1,009

1,027

-41

18

-24

116

244

359

74

261

336

90

H31 Machinists and related occupations

137

118

121

-19

3

-16

11

23

34

-8

25

18

5,629

4,298

4,177

-1,331

-121

-1,452

325

611

937

-1,006

490

-515

3,797

3,258

3,351

-539

93

-446

334

626

960

-205

719

514

3,013

2,860

3,096

-154

237

83

218

468

686

64

705

769

91 92 93

H32 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades H41 Machinery, transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) H42 Automotive service technicians

60,175 48,687 48,899 -11,488

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

20

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S) TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS 94

H43 Other mechanics

95

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

2,404

61,486 63,890

604

524

548

-80

24

-56

48

92

141

-32

117

85

H53 Other installers, repairers and servicers

1,774

1,471

1,501

-303

30

-273

109

205

313

-194

235

40

96

H61 Heavy equipment operators

4,236

3,359

3,286

-877

-72

-949

308

545

854

-569

473

-96

97

H62 Crane operators, drillers and blasters

634

487

470

-147

-17

-164

45

83

128

-103

66

-37

98

H71 Motor vehicle and transit drivers

6,930

6,212

6,502

-718

290

-428

692

1,331

2,023

-26

1,621

1,595

99

H73 Other transport equipment operators and related workers

1,495

1,427

1,511

-69

84

15

120

283

403

52

367

419

100

H81 Longshore workers and material handlers

3,432

3,140

3,293

-292

153

-139

265

509

774

-27

662

635

101 H82 Trades helpers and labourers

6,647

4,879

4,829

-1,767

-50

-1,818

296

518

815

-1,471

468

-1,003

H83 Public works and other labourers, not elsewhere classified

1,585

1,444

1,458

-141

14

-127

146

289

435

5

303

308

803

747

794

-57

48

-9

104

211

316

48

259

306

-113

492

379

1,887

3,603

5,491

1,774

4,096

5,870

102

Hxx Other Trades, transport and 103 equipment operators and related occupations (H02, H51, H52, H72) I

UNIQUE TO PRIMARY INDUSTRY

I01 Contractors, operators 104 and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 105

I02 Agriculture and horticulture workers

106 I12 Supervisors, mining, oil and gas

15,897 15,784 16,276 587

578

598

-9

20

11

77

149

226

68

168

237

1,116

1,092

1,119

-23

27

4

68

143

211

45

170

214

702

729

816

26

87

114

58

131

189

85

219

303

1,069

1,121

1,256

52

134

187

81

164

245

134

298

432

107

I13 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related workers

108

I14 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling

436

454

506

18

52

70

21

43

63

39

95

133

109

I17 Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/women

7,610

7,603

7,606

-7

2

-4

1,260

2,356

3,617

1,254

2,359

3,612

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

21

Table 14 Detailed Forecast for NL (cont’d) Occupation (NOC-S) TOTAL ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONS 110

I18 Other fishing and trapping occupations

111 I21 Primary production labourers 112 J 113

Ixx Other Occupations unique to primary industry (I11, I15, I16) UNIQUE TO PROCESSING, MANUFACTURING AND UTILITIES J01 Supervisors, processing occupations

Reference Year 2014

2018

2025

Expansion/Contraction

Attrition

Job Openings

2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2015 to 2019 to 2015 to 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025 2018 2025 2025

292,060 267,987 279,980 -24,073 11,993 -12,080 26,477 49,493 75,970

2,404

61,486 63,890

797

797

798

0

0

0

70

147

217

70

147

217

2,986

2,846

3,008

-140

162

21

176

329

505

36

491

526

594

563

571

-31

8

-23

76

142

217

45

149

194

-564

134

-430

1,102

2,156

3,258

538

2,290

2,828

10,972 10,408 10,542 600

551

551

-49

1

-49

92

159

252

43

160

203

J11 Central control, process 114 operators in manufacturing and processing

419

423

452

3

30

33

48

91

139

51

121

172

J12 Machine operators and related 115 workers in metal and mineral products processing

194

180

193

-14

13

-1

21

41

62

8

54

62

J13 Machine operators and related 116 workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing

198

182

186

-16

4

-12

23

44

67

7

48

55

4,091

4,030

4,037

-61

7

-54

408

788

1,196

347

795

1,142

J19 Machining, metalworking, 118 woodworking and related machine operators

122

105

106

-18

2

-16

12

24

36

-6

25

19

J31 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

3,672

3,514

3,552

-158

38

-120

312

658

970

154

696

850

1,677

1,423

1,464

-253

40

-213

187

350

537

-66

390

324

117

119

J17 Machine operators in food, beverage and tobacco processing and related workers

Jxx Other Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and 120 utilities (J02, J14, J15, J16, J18, J21, J22)

Source: Economic Research and Analysis Division, Economics and Statistics Branch, Department of Finance Newfoundland and Labrador Occupational Projection Model Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to independent rounding.

22

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

OCCUPATIONAL JOB PROSPECTS The Department of Finance carried out an analysis of 120 occupational categories taking both supply and demand considerations into account to identify occupations with the strongest job prospects over the 2015 to 2025 period. This occupational forecast has included the following variables: • • • • • • •

Employment growth rates (historical and projected); Attrition; New entrants; Participation rates; Age of the workforce; Unemployment; and Migration.

The occupations in this report have been rated according to a scale that takes into account various labour market indicators, including: • • • •

Employment growth; Ratio of attrition to labour force; Net migration as a percentage of labour force; and Increased labour supply responses as a percentage of labour force (inmigration, higher participation rates, inter-occupational shifts).

The following key is provided to assist in the interpretation of job prospects for various occupations over the 2015 to 2025 period in Newfoundland and Labrador: Occupation Rated as 1: Projected labour supply is expected to be able to meet projected job openings, and an excess supply of workers may exist. Occupation Rated as 2: Projected labour supply is expected to be able to meet projected job openings. Occupation Rated as 3: Projected labour supply to meet job openings will require increased labour supply responses (i.e., in-migration, higher participation rates, inter-occupational shifts). Additional supplies of qualified workers to meet unanticipated short-term increases in demand in the province are limited. Occupation Rated as 4: Projected labour supply is expected to lag projected job openings. Significant labour supply responses (i.e., in-migration and inter-occupational shifts) will be required to meet demand. Competition for qualified labour will be strong. LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

23

Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings (Cont’d)

2019- 20152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20152018 2025 2025

A

Management Occupations

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

A01 Legislators and senior management

3

3

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

4

4

2

A11 Administrative services managers

3

3

3

3

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

A12 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

2

3

3

2

3

2

4

A13 Sales, marketing and advertising managers

3

2

3

2

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

5

A14 Facility operation and maintenance managers

3

3

3

3

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

6

A21 Managers in retail trade

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

4

3

4

3

3

3

3

7

A22 Managers in food service and accommodation

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

8

A30 Managers in financial and business services

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

9

A32 Managers in health, education, social and community services

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

10 A37 Managers in construction and transportation

2

2

2

2

3

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

3

2

11 A38 Managers in primary production (except agriculture)

2

3

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

12 A39 Managers in manufacturing and utilities

3

2

3

2

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

13

Axx Other Management occupations (A31, A33, A34, A35, A36)

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

B

Business, Finance and Administrative Occupations

3

2

3

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

14 B01 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals

3

2

2

2

3

4

3

3

2

3

2

2

3

3

15 B02 Human resources and business service professionals

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

3

3

16 B11 Finance and insurance administrative occupations

4

3

3

3

4

4

4

4

3

4

3

3

4

3

17 B21 Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

18 B31 Administrative and regulatory occupations

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

19 B41 Clerical supervisors

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

2

20 B51 Clerical occupations, general office skills

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

21 B52 Office equipment operators

3

2

2

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

22 B53 Finance and insurance clerks

3

2

3

2

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

2

3

3

23 B54 Administrative support clerks

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

24

24

B55 Library, correspondence and related information clerks

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings (Cont’d)

2019- 20152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20152018 2025 2025

25 B56 Mail and message distribution occupations

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

4

3

26 B57 Recording, scheduling and distributing occupations

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

C

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

27 C01 Physical science professionals

2

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

28 C03 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

1

2

2

29 C04 Other engineers

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

30 C07 Computer and information systems professionals

2

2

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

31 C11 Technical occupations in physical sciences

2

3

3

4

3

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

3

32 C12 Technical occupations in life sciences

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations

33

C13 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical, industrial engineering

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

1

1

2

1

2

2

2

34

C14 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering

3

2

2

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

4

2

3

3

35

C15 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, mapping

2

2

2

2

3

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

36 C16 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

37 C17 Transportation officers and controllers

3

3

4

4

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

38

C18 Technical occupations in computer and information systems

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

39

Cxx Other Natural, applied sciences, related occupations (C02, C05, C06)

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

2

2

D

Health Occupations

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

40 D01 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

41 D03 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

42 D04 Therapy and assessment professionals

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

43 D11 Nurse supervisors and registered nurses

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

3

3

3

3

3

44

D21 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

3

2

2

45

D23 Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

46 D31 Assisting occupations in support of health services

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

47 Dxx Other health occupations (D02, D22)

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

25

Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings (Cont’d) E

Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service, Religon

48 E01 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries

2019- 20152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20152018 2025 2025 3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

1

2

1

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

49

E02 Psychologists, social workers, counsellors, clergy, probation officers

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

50

E03 Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

51

E11 and E12 University professors and assistants, College and Vocational Instructors

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

52

E13 Secondary, elementary school teachers, educational counsellors

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

53

E21 Paralegals, social services workers, occupations in education, religion

3

3

3

3

2

3

2

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

54 F02 Writing, translating and public relations professionals

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

3

2

2

55 F03 Creative and performing artists

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

4

3

3

3

4

3

3

F12 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and 57 technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

2

2

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

1

58 F14 Creative designers and craftspersons

2

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

59 F15 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

1

2

F

56

F11 Technical occupations in libraries, archives, museums and art galleries

60

Fxx Other Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (F01, F13)

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

G

Sales and Service Occupations

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

61 G01 Sales and service supervisors

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

62 G11 Sales representatives, wholesale trade

3

1

2

1

2

3

3

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

63 G12 Technical sales specialists, wholesale trade

3

1

2

2

3

4

3

3

2

3

2

2

3

2

3

2

3

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

65 G21 Retail salespersons and sales clerks

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

66 G31 Cashiers

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

67 G41 Chefs and cooks

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

64

26

G13 Insurance and real estate sales occupations and buyers

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings (Cont’d)

2019- 20152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20152018 2025 2025

68 G51 Occupations in food and beverage service

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

69 G61 Police officers and fire-fighters

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

70 G62 Other occupations in protective service

2

2

2

2

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

71 G63 Security guards and related occupations

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

72 G71 Occupations in travel and accommodation

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

3

2

2

2

73 G72 Tour and recreational guides and casino occupations

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

75 G81 Childcare and home support workers

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

76 G91 Technical occupations in personal service

3

2

2

2

1

2

2

1

2

1

2

2

2

2

77 G92 Other occupations in personal service

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

2

2

2

78 G93 Cleaners

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

79 G94 Butchers and bakers, retail and wholesale

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

81 G97 Other sales and related occupations

2

1

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

82 G98 Other elemental service occupations

4

4

4

3

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

4

4

H

Trades, Transportation and Equipment Operators

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

83

H01 Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers

2

2

2

2

3

4

4

3

2

3

2

2

3

2

84 H11 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

85 H12 Carpenters and cabinetmakers

1

1

1

1

2

3

3

2

1

2

1

1

2

2

86 H13 Masonry and plastering trades

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

87 H14 Other construction trades

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

1

2

1

74

80

G73 Other occupations in travel, accommodation, amusement and recreation

G96 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations

88

H21 Electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

1

2

1

2

2

2

89

H22 Stationary engineers and power station and system operators

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

90 H31 Machinists and related occupations

2

1

2

1

2

2

3

3

3

2

3

1

2

2

91 H32 Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

27

Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings (Cont’d) 92

H41 Machinery, transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle)

2019- 20152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20152018 2025 2025 2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

3

2

3

2

93 H42 Automotive service technicians

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

3

2

3

2

94 H43 Other mechanics

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

95 H53 Other installers, repairers and servicers

2

1

1

1

2

2

3

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

96 H61 Heavy equipment operators

2

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

1

2

2

97 H62 Crane operators, drillers and blasters

2

1

2

2

2

3

3

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

98 H71 Motor vehicle and transit drivers

3

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

100 H81 Longshore workers and material handlers

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

101 H82 Trades helpers and labourers

1

1

1

1

2

2

3

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

99

H73 Other transport equipment operators and related workers

102

H83 Public works and other labourers, not elsewhere classified

3

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

103

Hxx Other Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (H02, H51, H52, H72)

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

4

3

4

4

3

4

3

Occupations Unique to the Primary Industry

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

2

3

I01 Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture

4

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

105 I02 Agriculture and horticulture workers

3

2

2

3

3

2

1

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

106 I12 Supervisors, mining, oil and gas

2

3

3

4

3

2

2

3

2

3

4

3

3

3

I 104

107

I13 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related workers

2

3

3

3

3

2

1

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

108

I14 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling

2

2

3

3

3

1

1

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

109

I17 Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/ women

2

4

4

4

4

3

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

110 I18 Other fishing and trapping occupations

2

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

111 I21 Primary production labourers

2

2

2

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

3

2

2

2

112

Ixx Other Occupations unique to primary industry (I11, I15, I16)

4

3

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

4

3

3

3

3

J

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing, and Utilities

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

113 J01 Supervisors, processing occupations

28

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Table 15. Labour Market Outlook 2025 Occupational Ratings (Cont’d)

2019- 20152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20152018 2025 2025

114

J11 Central control, process operators in manufacturing and processing

3

3

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

115

J12 Machine operators and related workers in metal and mineral products processing

2

3

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

116

J13 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing

3

3

3

3

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

3

3

3

117

J17 Machine operators in food, beverage and tobacco processing and related workers

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

118

J19 Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators

3

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

3

2

119 J31 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

2

2

3

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

2

Jxx Other Occupations unique to processing, 120 manufacturing and utilities (J02, J14, J15, J16, J18, J21, J22)

2

2

2

2

3

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

3

3

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

29

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY The occupational demand projections in this report and the associated job prospect ratings were prepared by the Economic Research and Analysis Division, Economics and Statistics Branch, Department of Finance. The projections are based on economic and demographic forecasts also prepared by the Department of Finance. Users requiring further detail and/or with questions concerning the methodology (such as underlying economic/ demographic forecasts) should contact the Department of Finance (see contact information on page 44). The basic concept of the occupational model is illustrated in Figure 6. Figure 6. Basic Concept of Occupational Model

Demand

Macroeconomic Forecast (assumptions around major projects, government sector, Canada, U.S. and World Outlook) Occupational Demand Employment by Industry

Occupational demand/supply (RATING)

Rates the risk of adequate worker availability per occupation group

Supply

Population New Entrants Deaths/Retirements Net Migration Participation Rates Unemployment Occupation Shifts

The occupational demand projections are based on a macroeconomic forecast (prepared by the Department of Finance in May 2015) which includes key indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, household income and employment. The macroeconomic forecast is used to project employment demand for over 40 industry groups. This employment by industry forecast is the basis for the occupational demand projections. The macroeconomic forecast is produced using the Newfoundland and Labrador Econometric Model (NALEM) which utilizes a collection of historical data and assumptions regarding the Canadian, United States and world economies; the government sector; and the level of expected economic activity in the province’s key export industries as well as major projects (Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose, Hebron, Statoil’s Bay du Nord, Muskrat Falls, Voisey’s Bay Underground Mine, and Kami Iron Ore). The assumptions regarding provincial industries are assembled in consultation with relevant Provincial Government departments, and other data such as interest and exchange rates are obtained from external sources. 30

Statistics Canada’s Census and 2011 National Household Survey data were used to determine occupational concentrations among industries. This information was used in conjunction with the forecasted employment demand by industry to project the employment demand by occupation. This method of forecasting occupational demand is similar to methods used by other forecasters across the country. The Department of Finance’s population projections formed the basis for estimates of new entrants and net migration. The population projections are based on a number of assumptions regarding fertility rates, mortality and migration, and are consistent with the aggregate labour supply and demand projections in the provincial macroeconomic forecast. The Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) was used to estimate retirement and death rates by occupation. Historical estimates of labour force, total employment, employment by industry, participation rates by age and sex, and unemployment rates were sourced from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. Statistics Canada’s Small Area and Administrative Data Division provided historical counts of taxfilers by detailed industry. These data were used to derive the historical data for the number of workers by industry.

Data, Information Sources and Tools

Detailed descriptions of some of the main data sources and tools used in the occupational projections are provided below. Newfoundland and Labrador Econometric Model (NALEM) NALEM is a detailed model of the relationships between key economic variables affecting the provincial economy and is used by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador for economic forecasting and to assess the economic impacts created by major development projects (as well as government policy changes). NALEM is used and maintained by the Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance. Population Projection System (POPPS) The Population Projection System is a custom-built projection system which projects the population by age and gender for Newfoundland and Labrador and sub-provincial regions. The system uses information/assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to produce the projection. POPPS is used and maintained by the Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (LFS) The Labour Force Survey is a monthly survey conducted by Statistics Canada. The LFS produces estimates of employment and the unemployment rate, as well as other standard labour market indicators such as the labour force, employment rate and participation rate. The LFS also provides employment estimates by industry, public and private sector, and hours worked. Statistics Canada, Census and 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) Statistics Canada conducts a census of the population every five years. Prior to 2011, the Census collected information about the demographic, social and economic characteristics of the Canadian population, including detailed labour market data by occupation and industry. In 2011, the approach to collecting this information changed. The Census continued to collect demographic information, but the social and economic information was collected through the new voluntary National Household Survey.

Canadian Provincial Occupational Modelling System (POMS) The Canadian Provincial Occupational Modelling System is an occupation modelling system developed and used by the Centre for Spatial Economics (a private sector consulting firm). It produces information on future labour demand that arises from employment growth and through attrition, and it provides information on future labour supply from new entrants, net inmigration and other occupational mobility. Acknowledgement The methods and approaches used to produce Outlook 2025 have been considerably informed by the advancements made in the field of occupational modeling by the Centre for Spatial Economics.

Statistics Canada, Custom Taxfiler by Industry, Small Area Data From the income tax forms submitted each year by Canadians, the Small Area and Administrative Data Division of Statistics Canada produces a wealth of aggregated economic and demographic information for use by both the private and public sectors. The Division examines and processes over 22 million tax and other administrative records in an effort to offer clients the most reliable information possible. The data is highly accurate as it is a direct count from the tax file – not a sample. The file contains 100 per cent of all taxfilers and the data covers approximately 96 per cent of all Canadians. Statistics Canada, Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours is a monthly Statistics Canada survey that provides detailed information on the total number of paid employees, payrolls, hours and job vacancies at detailed industrial, national and provincial/territorial levels. The SEPH is produced from the combination of the Business Payroll Survey results and the payroll deductions administrative data received from the Canada Revenue Agency. Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) The Canadian Occupational Projection System is a set of economic models used to assess and project future labour market conditions on an industrial and occupational basis. Employment and Social Development Canada uses COPS to develop projections of future trends in the major sources (e.g., attrition) of job openings.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

31

APPENDIX B: NOC-S (FOR OCCUPATIONS) AND NAICS (FOR INDUSTRIES) The occupation statistics in this report reflect the National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S), while the industry statistics are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Information on both of these systems is provided below for users. National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S) The National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S) is a statistical classification designed by Statistics Canada to classify data on occupations from the Census of Population and other Statistics Canada surveys. It is based on the National Occupational Classification (NOC) which was developed and is maintained by Employment and Social Development Canada. The NOC is the nationally accepted classification system on occupations in Canada. It organizes over 30,000 job titles into 520 occupational group descriptions. The NOC and NOC-S categorize occupations on the basis of the type of work that is carried out or performed. Occupations are therefore identified and grouped primarily in terms of the work usually performed, this being determined by the tasks, duties and responsibilities of the occupation. Factors such as the materials processed or used, the industrial processes used, the equipment used, the degree of responsibility and complexity of work, the products made and services provided have been taken as indicators of the work performed when combining jobs into occupations and occupations into groups. An occupation is defined as a collection of jobs, sufficiently similar in work performed to be grouped under a common title for classification purposes. A job, in turn, encompasses all the tasks carried out by a particular worker to complete her/his duties. Further information about NOC-S can be found at www.statcan.gc.ca/subjectssujets/standard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm. There are 10 major categories within the NOC-S. All other occupations are categorized within these groupings. • A – Management Occupations: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with carrying out the functions of management by planning, organizing, coordinating, directing, controlling, staffing, and formulating, implementing or enforcing policy, either directly or through other levels of management. Supervising is not considered to be a management function. 32

• B – Business, Finance and Administrative Occupations: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with providing financial and business services, administrative and regulatory services and clerical support services. • C – Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with conducting theoretical and applied research and providing technical support in natural and applied sciences. • D – Health Occupations: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with providing health care services directly to patients and providing support to health care delivery. • E – Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with law, teaching, counselling, conducting social science research, providing religious services and developing and administering government policies and programs. • F – Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with providing artistic and cultural services and providing direct support to the service providers. • G – Sales and Service Occupations: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with selling goods and services and providing personal, protective, household, tourism and hospitality services. • H – Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with contracting, supervising and doing trades work, and supervising and operating transportation equipment and heavy equipment. • I – Occupations Unique to Primary Industry: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with operating farms and supervising or doing farm work, operating fishing vessels and doing specialized fishing work, and in doing supervision and production work in oil and gas production, mining, and forestry and logging. • J – Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities: Occupations in this broad occupational category are primarily concerned with supervisory and production work in manufacturing, processing and utilities. A guide to the occupational categories included in this report is provided on the following pages.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

NOC-S

Occupation Title

Examples

A Management Occupations A01

Legislators and senior management

Legislators; senior government managers and officials; senior managers

A11

Administrative services managers

Financial managers; human resources managers; purchasing managers

A12

Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems

Managers in engineering, architecture, science, information systems

A13

Sales, marketing and advertising managers

Sales, marketing and advertising managers

A14

Facility operation and maintenance managers

Facility operation and maintenance managers

A21

Managers in retail trade

Retail trade managers

A22

Managers in food service and accommodation

Restaurant and food service managers; accommodation service managers

A30

Managers in financial and business services

Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers; banking, credit and other investment managers

A32

Managers in health, education, social and community Managers in health care; administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training; services school principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education

A37

Managers in construction and transportation

Construction managers; residential home builders and renovators; transportation managers

A38

Managers in primary production (except agriculture)

Managers in primary production (except agriculture)

A39

Managers in manufacturing and utilities

Managers in manufacturing and utilities

Axx

Other Management occupations (A31, A33, A34, A35, A36)

Telecommunications managers; postal and courier managers; government managers; art, culture, recreation and sport managers; police, firefighter and armed forces managers; other service managers not classified elsewhere (including dry cleaning, hairdressing and residential cleaning managers)

B Business, finance and administrative occupations Financial auditors and accountants; financial and investment analysts; securities agents, investment dealers and brokers

B01

Auditors, accountants and investment professionals

B02

Human resources and business service professionals Specialists in human resources; professional occupations in business services to management

B11

Finance and insurance administrative occupations

Bookkeepers; loan officers; insurance adjusters and claims examiners; assessors, valuators and appraisers; customs, ship and other brokers

B21

Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists

Secretaries; recorders; transcriptionists

B31

Administrative and regulatory occupations

Administrative officers; executive assistants; purchasing agents; court officers

B41

Clerical supervisors

Supervisors for clerks (e.g., administrative support clerks; finance and insurance clerks; library, correspondence and related information clerks, etc.)

B51

Clerical occupations, general office skills

General office clerks; records management and filing clerks; receptionists

B52

Office equipment operators

Data entry clerks; desktop publishing; telephone operators

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

33

NOC-S

Occupation Title

Examples

B53

Finance and insurance clerks

Accounting and related clerks; payroll clerks; customer service representatives (financial services); banking, insurance and financial clerks

B54

Administrative support clerks

Administrative clerks; personnel clerks; court clerks

B55

Library, correspondence and related information clerks

Library clerks; correspondence, publication and related clerks; survey interviewers and statistical clerks

B56

Mail and message distribution occupations

Mail clerks; letter carriers; couriers

B57

Recording, scheduling and distributing occupations

Shippers and receivers; storekeepers and parts clerks; purchasing and inventory clerks; dispatchers

C Natural and applied sciences and related occupations C01

Physical science professionals

Chemists; physicists; geologists; meteorologists

C03

Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers

Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers

C04

Other engineers

Industrial, metallurgical, mining, petroleum, aerospace, and computer engineers

C07

Computer and information systems professionals

Information systems analysts and consultants; database analysts and administrators; software engineers and designers; web designers

C11

Technical occupations in physical sciences

Chemical, geological and meteorological technologists and technicians

C12

Technical occupations in life sciences

Biological, agricultural, forestry, horticulture technologists and technicians; conservation and fishery officers

C13

Technical occupations in civil, mechanical, industrial engineering

Civil, mechanical, industrial and manufacturing technologists and technicians; construction estimators

C14

Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering

Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians; electronic service technicians; industrial instrument technicians and mechanics

C15

Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, mapping

Architectural technologists and technicians; industrial designers; drafting technologists and technicians; land survey technologists and technicians

C16

Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers

Non-destructive testers; engineering inspectors; inspectors in public and environmental health and occupation health and safety; construction inspectors

C17

Transportation officers and controllers

Air pilots; flight engineers and flying instructors; air traffic control; deck officers and engineer officers (water transport);

C18

Technical occupations in computer and information systems

Computer network technicians; user support technicians; systems testing technicians

Cxx

Other natural applied sciences, related occupations (C02, C05, C06)

Biologists; agricultural representatives; architects; land surveyors; statisticians

D Health occupations D01

Physicians, dentists and veterinarians

Physicians; dentists; veterinarians

D03

Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists

Pharmacists; dietitians; nutritionists

D04

Therapy and assessment professionals

Audiologists and speech-language pathologists; physiotherapists; occupational therapists

34

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

NOC-S

Occupation Title

Examples

D11

Nurse supervisors and registered nurses

Nurse supervisors; registered nurses

D21

Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

Medical laboratory technologists; medical sonographers; veterinary health technologists and technicians

D23

Other technical occupations in health care (except dental)

Opticians; licensed practical nurses; midwives; paramedics

D31

Assisting occupations in support of health services

Dental assistants; nurse aides; orderlies

Dxx

Other health occupations (D02, D22)

Denturists; dental hygienists; optometrists; chiropractors

E Occupations in social science, education, government service, religion E01

Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries

Judges; lawyers; Quebec notaries

E02

Psychologists, social workers, counsellors, clergy, probation officers

Psychologists; social workers; counsellors; clergy; probation officers

E03

Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants

Economic, social, education, health policy researchers and analysts; business development officers; marketing researchers and consultants

E11 and E12

University professors and assistants, college and vocational instructors

University professors; post-secondary teaching and research assistants; college and other vocational instructors

E13

Secondary, elementary school teachers, educational counsellors

Secondary school teachers; elementary and kindergarten teachers; educational counsellors

E21

Paralegals, social services workers, occupations in education, religion

Paralegals; employment counsellors; early childhood educators and assistants; instructors and teachers of persons with disabilities

F Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport F02

Writing, translating and public relations professionals Journalists; authors and writers; translators; terminologists; interpreters

F03

Creative and performing artists

F11

Technical occupations in libraries, archives, museums Library, archive, and museum technicians and assistants and art galleries

F12

Photography, graphics, technical occupation in movies, broadcasting and performing

Photographers; film and camera operators; graphic arts technicians; audio and video recording technicians

F14

Creative designers and craftspersons

Graphic designers; interior designers; fashion designers

F15

Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations

Athletes; coaches; referees

Fxx

Other occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Librarians; curators; archivists; announcers; broadcasters (F01, F13)

Producers; directors; musicians and singers; actors; painters and sculptors

G Sales and service occupations G01

Sales and service supervisors

Supervisors in retail trade, food service, laundry, executive, and cleaning

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

35

NOC-S

Occupation Title

Examples

G11

Sales representatives, wholesale trade

Sales representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)

G12

Technical sales specialists, wholesale trade

Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade

G13

Insurance and real estate sales occupations and buyers

Insurance agents; real estate agents; retail and wholesale buyers; grain elevator operators

G21

Retail salespersons and sales clerks

Retail salespersons and sales clerks

G31

Cashiers

Cashiers

G41

Chefs and cooks

Chefs and cooks

G51

Occupations in food and beverage service

Hosts/hostesses; bartenders; food and beverage servers

G61

Police officers and fire-fighters

Police officers (except commissioned); firefighters

G62

Other occupations in protective service

Sheriffs; correctional service officers; protective service occupations

G63

Security guards and related occupations

Security guards and related occupations

G71

Occupations in travel and accommodation

Travel counsellors; flight attendants; airline sales and service agents; ticket agents; hotel front desk clerks

G72

Tour and recreational guides and casino occupations

Tour and travel guides; outdoor sport and recreational guides

G73

Other occupations in travel, accommodation, amusement and recreation

Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation, sport, accommodation and travel

G81

Childcare and home support workers

Homemakers; housekeepers; elementary and secondary school teacher assistants; babysitters; nannies

G91

Technical occupations in personal service

Hairstylists and barbers; funeral directors and embalmers

G92

Other occupations in personal service

Pet groomers; image consultants; estheticians; electrologists

G93

Cleaners

Light duty and specialized cleaners; janitors, caretakers and building superintendents

G94

Butchers and bakers, retail and wholesale

Butchers and meat cutters; bakers

G96

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related Food counter attendants; kitchen helpers occupations

G97

Other sales and related occupations

Service station attendants; grocery clerks; shelf stockers

G98

Other elemental service occupations

Dry cleaners; laundry attendants; beauty salon attendants; movie ushers

H Trades, transportation and equipment operators H01

Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers

Contractors and supervisors - trades and related workers

H11

Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters

Plumbers; pipefitters; gas fitters

H12

Carpenters and cabinetmakers

Carpenters; cabinetmakers

H13

Masonry and plastering trades

Bricklayers; concrete finishers; tilesetters; plasterers

36

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

NOC-S

Occupation Title

Examples

H14

Other construction trades

Roofers; insulators; painters and decorators; floor covering installers

H21

Electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

Electricians; electrical power line and cable workers; telecommunications line, cable, and repair workers

H22

Stationary engineers and power station and system operators

Stationary engineers and auxiliary equipment operators; power systems and power station operators

H31

Machinists and related occupations

Machinists; tool and die makers

H32

Metal forming, shaping and erecting trades

Sheet metal workers; boilermakers; ironworkers; welders

H41

Machinery, transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle)

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; heavy-duty equipment mechanics; refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics

H42

Automotive service technicians

Automotive service technicians; motor vehicle body repairers

H43

Other mechanics

Oil heating mechanics; electric appliance repairers; motorcycle mechanics; other small engine and equipment mechanics

H53

Other installers, repairers and servicers

Pest controllers; residential/commercial installers and servicers; automotive mechanical installers and servicers

H61

Heavy equipment operators

Heavy equipment operators

H62

Crane operators, drillers and blasters

Crane operators; drillers and blasters

H71

Motor vehicle and transit drivers

Truck drivers; bus drivers; taxi and limousine drivers; delivery and courier service drivers

H73

Other transport equipment operators and related workers

Water transport engine and deck crew; boat operators; air transport ramp attendants

H81

Longshore workers and material handlers

Longshore workers; material handlers

H82

Trades helpers and labourers

Construction trades helpers and labourers

H83 Hxx

Public works and other labourers, not elsewhere Public works and maintenance labourers classified Other trades, transport and equipment operators and Commercial divers; tailors; shoe repairers; printing press operators; supervisors (motor related occupations (H02, H51, H52, H72) transportation)

I Occupations unique to primary industry I01

Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture

Contractors, operators, and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture, and aquaculture

I02

Agriculture and horticulture workers

General farm workers; nursery and greenhouse workers

I12

Supervisors, mining, oil and gas

Supervisors in mining and quarrying; supervisors in oil and gas drilling and service

I13 I14

Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related workers Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling

Underground miners; oil and gas drillers, servicers, and testers Underground mine service and support workers; oil and gas drilling workers and services operators LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

37

NOC-S

Occupation Title

Examples

I17

Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/ women

Fishing masters and officers; fishing vessel skippers and fishermen/women

I18

Other fishing and trapping occupations

Fishing vessel deckhands; trappers and hunters

I21

Primary production labourers

Labourers in harvesting, landscaping, aquaculture, mines, oil and gas drilling, and forestry

Ixx

Other Occupations unique to primary industry (I11, I15, I16)

Logging machinery operators; chain saw and skidder operators; forestry workers; supervisors in logging and forestry

J Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities J01

Supervisors, processing occupations

Supervisors in processing (mineral and metal; petroleum, gas and chemical; food, beverage and tobacco; plastic and rubber products; forest products, etc.)

J11

Central control, process operators in manufacturing and processing

Central control and process operators; petroleum, gas and chemical process operators; pulping control operators

J12

Machine operators in metal and mineral products processing

Machine operators (mineral and metal processing); concrete, clay and stone forming operators; inspectors and testers (mineral and metal processing)

J13

Machine operators in chemical, plastic and rubber processing

Machine operators (chemical plant; plastics processing; rubber processing; water and waste plant, etc.)

J17

Machine operators in food, beverage and tobacco processing and related workers

Machine operators (food and beverage processing); industrial butchers; fish plant workers; testers and graders (food and beverage processing)

J19

Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators

Machining tool operators; metalworking machine operators; woodworking machine operators

J31

Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

Labourers (mineral and metal processing; wood, pulp and paper processing; food, beverage and tobacco processing; fish processing, etc.); other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

Jxx

Other Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (J02, J14, J15, J16, J18, J21, J22)

Sawmill machine operators; wood processing machine operators; pulp mill operators; weavers and knitters; textile dyeing machine operators; sewing machine operators; fabric, fur, and leather cutters; hide and pelt processing workers; printing machine operators; mechanical, electrical and electronic assemblers; furniture and fixture assemblers; wood product assemblers and inspectors; industrial painter and coaters

38

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is an industry classification system developed by the statistical agencies of Canada, Mexico and the United States. Created against the background of the North American Free Trade Agreement, it is designed to provide common definitions of the industrial structure of the three countries and a common statistical framework to facilitate the analysis of the three economies. NAICS is based on supplyside or production-oriented principles, to ensure that industrial data, classified to NAICS, are suitable for the analysis of production-related issues such as industrial performance.

system ensures that statistical agencies in the three countries can produce information on inputs and outputs, industrial performance, productivity, unit labour costs, employment and other statistics that reflect structural changes occurring in the three economies.

NAICS is a comprehensive system encompassing all economic activities. It has a hierarchical structure. At the highest level, it divides the economy into 20 sectors. At lower levels, it further distinguishes the different economic activities in which businesses are engaged.

Further information about NAICS can be found at www.statcan.gc.ca/subjectssujets/standard-norme/naics-scian/2007/introduction-eng.htm.

The activity of an establishment can be described in terms of what is produced, namely, the type of goods and services produced or how they are produced; the raw material and service inputs used; and the process of production or skills and technology used.

The industries included in this report are listed as follows:

NAICS is based on a framework in which establishments are grouped into industries according to similarity in the production processes used to produce goods and services. A production-oriented industry classification Industry Type

Goods-Producing Industries

NAICS

Industry Title

Examples

11 (except 114), 22

Utilities, Forestry and Logging, and Other Primary

Electric Power Generation; Forestry; Logging; Agriculture; Aquaculture

114

Fishing, Hunting and Trapping

Fishing; Hunting and Trapping

21

Mining, Oil and Gas

Oil and Gas; Ore Mining; Metallic and Non-Metallic Mineral Mining; Quarrying; Support Activities such as Drilling

23

Construction

Residential and Non-Residential Building Construction; Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction; Specialty Trade Contractors (Foundation, Framing, Electrical, Plumbing, Finishing, etc.)

31-33 (except 3117)

Other Manufacturing

Food Manufacturing (except Seafood); Beverage Manufacturing; Pulp and Paper Mills; Wood Product Manufacturing; Petroleum Refineries; Printing; Chemical and Plastics Manufacturing; Primary Metal Manufacturing and Smelters; Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing; Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing; Furniture Manufacturing

3117

Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging

Seafood Product Preparation & Packaging, such as Fish Plants and Canneries

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

39

Industry Type

NAICS

Industry Title

Examples

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Wholesalers and Distributors for Food Products, Personal and Household Goods and Building Materials; Car Dealers; Furniture, Electronics and Appliance Stores; Building Materials Stores; Grocery Stores; Pharmacies; Gas Stations; Clothing Stores; and General Merchandise Stores

48-49

Transportation and Warehousing

Air Transportation; Deep Sea, Coastal and Inland Water Transportation Trucking; Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation; Sightseeing Tours; Airports; Dock and Harbour Operations; Postal Services; Couriers and Messenger Services; and Warehousing and Storage

51

Information and Culture

Newspapers; Motion Picture, Video and Sound Recording; Broadcasting; and, Telecommunications Carriers

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing

Banks and Credit Unions; Mortgage Brokers; Financial Investment Firms; Insurance Carriers; Pension and Other Funds; Real Estate Selling and Leasing; Automotive, Consumer Goods and Commercial/Industrial Equipment Rental Companies

54

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Legal Services; Accounting and Tax Preparation; Architectural and Engineering Services; Design Services; Computer Systems Services; Consulting Services; Advertising, Market Research and Public Relations Agencies; and Veterinary Services

55-56

Management of Companies & Enterprises, and Administrative & Support Services

Head Offices and Holding Companies; Employment Services; Administrative, Facilities and Business Support Services; Travel Agencies and Tour Operators; Security Services; Janitorial Services; Waste Management and Remediation Services

61

Educational Services

Schools; Colleges; Universities; and Technical and Trade Schools

Health Care and Social Assistance

Medical, Chiropractor, Optometrist, Dental and Other Health Clinics and Offices; Community and Family Health Centres; Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories; Home Health Care Services; Ambulance Services; Hospitals; Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities; Child, Youth and Family Services; Community Food, Housing and Emergency Services; and Child Care Services

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Accommodations & Food Services

Theatre, Dance, Musical Groups and Companies; Sports Teams and Spectator Sports; Promoters of Arts and Sports Events; Writers, Artists and Performers; Museums and Parks; Lotteries; Recreation Facilities; Hotels, Motels and Bed & Breakfasts; Recreational Camp Sites; Restaurants; Bars; and Caterers

41, 44-45

52-53

ServicesProducing Industries

62

71-72

40

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

81

Other Services

91

Public Administration

Automotive, Electronics, Appliance, Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Repair and Maintenance; Hair Salons; Funeral Homes; Dry Cleaning and Laundry Services; Pet Groomers; Religious Organizations; Social Advocacy Organizations; Civic and Social Organizations; Business, Professional and Labour Membership Organizations; Private Households Federal and Provincial Government Public Administration; Local, Municipal and Regional Public Administration; Aboriginal Public Administration

ENDNOTES 1 The job openings reported are a net figure (i.e., they include job openings through attrition plus changes in the number of jobs due to employment expansion or

contraction over the period).

2 Occupations unique to primary industry – includes Contractors, Operators and Supervisors in Agriculture, Horticulture, and Aquaculture; Agriculture and

Horticulture Workers; Supervisors in Mining, Oil and Gas; Underground Miners, Oil and Gas Drillers and Related Workers; Fishing Vessel Masters and Skippers and Fishermen/women; and Primary Production Labourers. 3 Other manufacturing (excluding seafood processing) is an industry category not found in the original industry classification system (i.e., North American Industry

Classification System [NAICS]). See Appendix B for more details on this category and the industry classification system in general.

4 The annual employment data referenced in this section are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. This survey measures the average monthly

employment level during the year. This figure is lower than other employment references in this document which report the total number of people working at some time during the year. 5 CANSIM table 281-0027, Survey of Payroll Hours and Earnings, Statistics Canada 6 Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database, April 2015. 7 Source: CANSIM Tables 380-0064 and 384-0038; Average of the forecasts of Canadian major banks and the Conference Board of Canada. 8 Source: Average forecast of the Canadian major banks and the Conference Board of Canada. 9 For more information visit www.gov.nl.ca/populationgrowth/index.html. 10 Readers should note that the Department of Health and Community Services (HCS) has performed detailed supply and demand analysis on several health

occupations, in particular registered nurses and licensed practical nurses. Users with an interest in these occupations are advised to consult both Outlook 2025 and the HCS sources. 11 Assisting occupations in support of health services – includes Dental Assistants: Nurse Aides, Orderlies and Patient Service Associates (which includes Personal

Care Assistants, or PCAs); and Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services.

12 Other technical occupations in health care (except dental) – includes Opticians; Midwives and Practitioners of Natural Healing; Licensed Practical Nurses;

Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations; and Other Technical Occupations in Therapy and Assessment (includes hearing, ophthalmic and speech aides, and massage therapists).

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

41

13 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers – includes Non-destructive Testers and Inspectors; Engineering Inspectors and Regulatory Officers; Inspectors

in Public and Environmental Health and Occupational Health and Safety; and Construction Inspectors.

14 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, mapping – includes Architectural Technologists and Technicians; Industrial Designers; Drafting

Technologists and Technicians; Land Survey Technologists and Technicians; and Mapping and Related Technologists and Technicians.

15 Administrative and regulatory occupations – includes Administrative Officers; Executive Assistants; Personnel and Recruitment Officers; Property Administrators;

Purchasing Agents and Officers; Conference and Event Planners; Court Officers and Justices of the Peace; and Immigration, Employment Insurance and Revenue Officers. 16 Paralegals, social services workers and occupations in education and religion – includes Paralegal and Related Occupations; Community and Social Service

Workers; Employment Counsellors; Instructors and Teachers of Persons with Disabilities; Other Instructors; Other Religious Occupations; and Early Childhood Educators and Assistants. 17 Please see endnote number 10. 18 Please see endnote number 11. 19 Please see endnote number 12.

20 Primary production labourers – includes Harvesting Labourers; Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers; Aquaculture and Marine Harvest Labourers;

Mine Labourers; Oil and Gas Drilling, Servicing and Related Labourers; and Logging and Forestry Labourers.

21 Further explanation of the differences in ratings 1 to 4 are presented in the Occupational Job Prospects section of this report (see page 23). 22 Other occupations unique to primary industry – includes Supervisors, Logging and Forestry; Logging Machinery Operators; and Logging and Forestry Workers. 23 Please see endnote number 10. 24 Please see endnote number 12. 25 Please see endnote number 11. 26 Other natural, applied sciences, related occupations – includes Life Science Professionals; Architects, Urban Planners and Land Surveyors; and

Mathematicians, Statisticians and Actuaries.

27 Other sales and related occupations – includes Service Station Attendants; Grocery Clerks and Store Shelf Stockers; and Other Elemental Sales Occupations

(including those who sell goods or services during home demonstrations, telephone soliciting, retail exhibitions, or street vending).

28 Other occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities – includes Supervisors in Assembly and Fabrication; Machine Operators and Related

Workers in Pulp and Paper Production and Wood Processing; Machine Operators and Related Workers in Textile Processing; Machine Operators and Related Workers in Fabric, Fur and Leather Products Manufacturing; Printing Machine Operators and Related Occupations; Mechanical, Electrical and Electronics Assemblers; and Other Assembly and Related Occupations 29 Please see endnote number 10. 30 Please see endnote number 12. 31 Please see endnote number 10. 32 Please see endnote number 12. 33 Please see endnote number 26.

42

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

34 Other occupations in personal service – includes Image, Social and Other Personal Consultants; Estheticians, Electrologists and Related Occupations; Pet

Groomers and Animal Care Workers; and Other Personal Service Occupations.

35 Technical occupations in personal service – includes Hairstylists and Barbers; and Funeral Directors and Embalmers. 36 Please see endnote number 10. 37 Other occupations in art, recreation and sport – includes Librarians, Archivists, Conservators and Curators; and Announcers and Other Performers. 38 Please see endnote number 22. 39 Physical science professionals – includes Physicists and Astronomers; Chemists; Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists; Meteorologists; and Other

Professional Occupations in Physical Sciences.

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

43

?

CONTACT INFORMATION

Looking for some labour market help? Labour Market and Career Information Hotline Call: 1-800-563-6600

Western Region

Click: www.aes.gov.nl.ca Come in: Employment Centres Avalon Region St. John’s Bell Island Mount Pearl

285 Duckworth Street; Regatta Plaza Building, 80-84 Elizabeth Ave Bennett Street

17 Industrial Crescent

Placentia/Dunville

1116-1120 Main Street

Central Region Baie Verte

College of the North Atlantic, 1 Terra Nova Road

Bonavista

Hayley Building, 122 Confederation Drive

Clarenville

45 Tilley’s Road

Gander

Fraser Mall

Grand Falls-Windsor

42 Hardy Avenue

Lewisporte

224 Main Street

Marystown

The Farrell Building, 3 Mall Street

Springdale

142 Little Bay Road

St. Alban’s

Buffett Building, 43 Cromier Avenue

Twillingate

Toulinquet Street

44

29 Carolina Ave

Channel-Port aux Basques

239 Grand Bay West Road

Corner Brook

1-3 Union Street, 2nd Floor

Port Saunders

Dobbin Building

Rocky Harbour

120 Pond Road

St. Anthony

398 Goose Cove Road

Labrador Region

1170 Topsail Road

Carbonear

Stephenville

Happy Valley-Goose Bay

The Bursey Building, 163 Hamilton River Road

Hopedale

5 Government Road

Mary’s Harbour

32-36 Lodge Bay Road

Nain

2 Morhardt Road

Wabush

Wabush Plaza, 4 Grenfell Drive

Methodology

Questions concerning how the occupational projections were prepared (methodology) or about the underlying economic and demographic forecasts should be directed to: Economic Research and Analysis Division Economics and Statistics Branch Department of Finance P.O. Box 8700, St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6 Telephone: (709) 729-3255 Facsimile: (709) 729-6944 e-mail: [email protected]

LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Department of Advanced Education and Skills P.O. Box 8700 St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6 Canada

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Labour Market Outlook 2025 - Advanced Education, Skills and Labour

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